Structural Differences Shape Logistics Capacity
The road transport markets in Europe and the United States have shown clearly divergent developments since 2024. And while both regions experienced similar capacity movements in 2022, they have taken distinctly different courses in recent years. Christian Dolderer, Lead Research Analyst at Transporeon[1], a Trimble Company, analyses the market and explains the reasons behind these trends looking ahead to 2026.
The capacity index, based on transactional data, reflects overall market sentiment regarding available road freight capacity. Comparing developments across both regions provides deeper insight into the underlying dynamics of supply and demand. In 2022, both Europe and the US experienced expected capacity constraints, followed by a rebound a few months later.
However, the US market experienced this cycle approximately four months earlier than Europe. In 2023, available capacity in both regions reached its highest level in years, after which the markets began to diverge in the first quarter of 2024. In the US, available capacity remained high through the fourth quarter of 2025, creating a favourable market environment for shippers and brokers.
In contrast, capacity in Europe steadily declined, a trend that, after a brief stabilisation in 2025, has continued into 2026.
According to Dolderer, this development can largely be explained by differences in market response on the supply side: "European carriers reacted relatively quickly to declining margins and sharply rising operational costs by reducing their fleets. The increasing number of bankruptcies in the sector accelerated this process. Combined with declining transport demand in 2024 and the first half of 2025, this explains the continued capacity contraction in Europe.
As a result, the market climate for shippers and brokers is significantly less favourable than in the US."
In the US, a recent decline in capacity has also become visible. In addition to increased transport demand, Dolderer points to external factors: "Severe weather conditions have had temporary impacts, but we also see clear signals on the supply side. New heavy truck registrations fell sharply in 2025, making it clear that the decline is continuing.
Reduced investment in fleet expansion and modernisation could indicate a structural shift toward consolidation after years of overcapacity."
Despite the recent decline, trucking capacity in the US remains historically abundant. Dolderer therefore, describes the trend as more of a psychological correction than a fundamental shift: "After years in which demand exceeded supply, markets react strongly to signs of tightness, even when actual capacity remains relatively high." Over the coming weeks, Dolderer expects a slight easing of capacity in both regions due to seasonal factors.
However, he anticipates different dynamics for 2026: "In the US, capacity is expected to decline further.
This development is driven less by demand growth and more by carriers[2]' reactions and bankruptcies.
In Europe on the other hand, I expect that a recovery in transport demand will put further pressure on capacity."
References
- ^ Transporeon (www.transporeon.com)
- ^ carriers (logisticsbusiness.com)