UK haulage rates fall again as capacity jumps, TEG shows

The TEG Price Index, a monthly proxy for price-per-mile paid for UK haulage and courier services, fell by 4.1 points (3.27%) in February to 121.1, following a steep January decline. Year on year, the index was up 1.85%. (TEG's index is based on aggregated transaction data and is intended to track market pricing trends rather than individual lane rates.) Rates weakened across segments.

TEG reports the Haulage Index down 3.58% month on month to 118.5, while the Courier Index fell 2.98% to 123.7. The Artic Index dropped to 109.4, leaving it effectively unchanged compared with February 2025. TEG links the February fall primarily to a capacity swing: demand was broadly steady month on month[1], but transport availability rose 10.7% compared with January, increasing competition and pushing prices down.

The company notes that February is typically a quiet month after the festive peak, with fewer consumer goods moving. The question for operators is whether the usual March uplift arrives on schedule. Retail-driven volumes typically improve as spring promotions and seasonal spending build, with Mother's Day and Easter often supporting road volumes.

This year, however, TEG flags geopolitical risk as the key wild card -- especially the possibility of sustained fuel-cost pressure. That matters because fuel is one of the fastest-moving cost inputs for hauliers. February's UK inflation reading eased to 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2026, helped by lower food and fuel costs, the Office for National Statistics reported on 18 February.

But any renewed oil spike could quickly feed through into operating costs and rate expectations, particularly on longer-distance work and time-sensitive networks. On the macro side[2], the Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75% in its February decision, underlining that cost pressures have not fully disappeared. Meanwhile, UK consumer confidence slipped in February, with GfK reporting a three-point fall to -19, pointing to continued caution in discretionary spending -- a headwind for volume growth. 

Manufacturing offers a freight tailwind -- led by exports

UK manufacturing[3] stayed in expansion for a fourth consecutive month in February, according to the S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, which came in at 51.7 (final).

Output growth accelerated to a 17-month high, but the most freight-relevant signal was on the demand side: new export orders rose at the fastest pace in four-and-a-half years, with survey respondents citing stronger demand from multiple regions. The recovery, however, remains uneven. Consumer goods manufacturers continued to outperform, while investment goods lagged, and smaller firms reported weaker conditions than medium and large producers -- suggesting that the improvement is not yet broad-based across the sector.

Manufacturers also stayed cautious on staffing, with employment edging down again.

For road freight, this mix points to a potential March-April uplift concentrated in cross-border and export-linked flows, rather than a uniform rebound across all domestic lanes -- especially if capacity remains elevated and pricing stays under pressure. 

References

1. ^ a capacity swing: demand was broadly steady month on month (trans.info)
2. ^ On the macro side (trans.info)
3. ^ UK manufacturing (trans.info)