Germany: freight demand rises; price pressure persists
In its latest market report "Truck transport in Germany", issue 4/2025, the European Load Association of International Freight Forwarders (ELVIS) AG speaks of an "economic stabilisation - albeit at a low level".
"In the short-term comparison, we can see a certain stabilisation. However, the structural year-on-year comparison shows that the economic base remains fragile," Nikolja Grabowski, member of the Management Board of ELVIS AG, is quoted as saying in the press release.
Economy: slight GDP increase, industry continues to decline
Price-adjusted gross domestic product rose by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the previous quarter and by 0.4 percent compared with the same quarter of the previous year. This contrasts with weak industrial output: in December 2025, production in the manufacturing sector fell by 6.5 percent compared with the previous month and was 1.1 percent below the level of the previous year.
The declines were particularly pronounced in mechanical engineering (-6.8 percent compared with the previous month; -4.8 percent year-on-year) and in chemical products (-2.4 percent; -4.9 percent). Construction, on the other hand, developed positively, with an increase of 3.0 percent compared with the previous month and 0.4 percent year-on-year. The ifo business climate index remained unchanged in January 2026 compared with the previous month (0.0 percent), but improved by 2.7 percent year-on-year.
Business expectations rose by 5.7 percent compared with the previous year.
Truck transport market: demand picks up, prices remain under pressure
In the truck transport market, toll-liable mileage fell by 14.4 percent in December due to seasonal factors compared with the previous month, but was 4.4 percent above the figure for the previous year. The transport barometer - the ratio of freight to available loading space on the spot market - rose by 5.4 percent in January compared with the previous month and by 2.6 percent year-on-year. Revenue expectations in the road freight transport segment also increased: up 9.4 percent compared with the previous month and up 14.9 percent year-on-year.
At the same time, price expectations declined (-1.9 percent compared with the previous month; -4.2 percent compared with the same month of the previous year).
"However, there are still no signs of sustainable price enforcement," says Grabowski.
The ELVIS partial load index was 2.3 percent below the previous month in January and 2.2 percent below the previous year's figure.
Cost trends: personnel costs rise, diesel offers only limited relief
Personnel costs in the transport and logistics sector increased by 1.5 percent in the third quarter of 2025 compared with the previous quarter and by 4.2 percent year-on-year. In 2025, the average gross salary of a full-time professional driver was EUR 3,374 per month excluding special payments (+3.3 percent), and EUR 3,430 including special payments (+3.9 percent). On the energy side, the trend is moving in the opposite direction: diesel prices for large-scale consumers fell by 5.8 percent in December 2025 compared with the previous month and by 3.0 percent year-on-year. LNG became 12.1 percent cheaper compared with the previous month and 36.6 percent cheaper compared with the previous year.
At the same time, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices was plus 2.1 percent in January 2026. ELVIS points out that the relief in fuel costs does not offset the increase in personnel costs. In addition, diesel prices rose sharply again around the turn of the year.
Capacity situation: hardly any buffer left in the system
According to the market report, capacity has been adjusted in recent months as a result of weak overall economic conditions, fleets have been reduced and investments postponed.
"The current key figures suggest stability - but at a level that offers little buffer," says Grabowski.
A sudden surge in demand, for example due to rising industrial production or seasonal effects, could put significant strain on existing structures.
In such a scenario, freight capacity could quickly become a bottleneck factor. The report also points to a still high insolvency[1] rate among haulage companies. In the truck transport market, toll-liable mileage fell by 14.4 percent in December due to seasonal factors compared with the previous month, but was 4.4 percent above the figure for the previous year.
In the truck transport market, truck toll[2]-liable mileage fell by 14.4 percent in December due to seasonal factors compared with the previous month, but was 4.4 percent above the figure for the previous year.
References
- ^ insolvency (trans.info)
- ^ truck toll (trans.info)