Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Valuation Check After Earnings, Guidance Reaffirmation And Copper Growth Narrative

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is back in the spotlight after its fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings, where management reaffirmed production guidance, highlighted cash flow discipline, and emphasized flexibility around growth projects and shareholder returns. See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan.[1] The earnings update comes after a sharp run in Freeport-McMoRan's share price, with a 90 day share price return of 60.05% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 70.99%.

However, the latest 7 day share price return of a 2.78% decline suggests some near term momentum has cooled. If this copper focused story has your attention, it can be a good time to widen your watchlist and see how other materials names stack up against fast growing stocks with high insider ownership [2]. With Freeport-McMoRan trading near its analyst price target yet showing a 25% intrinsic discount on some models, the key question is simple: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is future growth already fully priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 40.3% Overvalued

According to the most followed narrative, Freeport-McMoRan's fair value sits at £44.08, well below the last close of £61.86, which raises questions about how optimistic expectations have become.

Global demand for copper, especially from EVs, AI, and green infrastructure Grasberg mine in Indonesia and large-scale U.S. operations (e.g., Morenci, Bagdad) U.S. legislation may classify copper as a "critical mineral", possibly introducing 10% tax creditAssumptions

Read the complete narrative.[3]

Curious what has to happen for that fair value to work? This narrative leans on steady revenue gains, rising earnings power, and a richer future profit multiple. The full story spells out how those pieces fit together.

Result: Fair Value of £44.08 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.[4] However, this story can shift quickly if copper prices weaken or production is disrupted.

Such developments would challenge the earnings assumptions behind that £44.08 fair value. Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative.[5]

Another Take: Cash Flows Tell a Different Story

The most followed narrative calls Freeport-McMoRan 40.3% overvalued at a fair value of £44.08, yet our DCF model points the other way. On that cash flow view, £61.86 sits about 25% below an £82.91 estimate.

Which story do you think better fits the risk you are willing to take? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.[6]

FCX Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Freeport-McMoRan for example [7]). We show the entire calculation in full.

You can track the result in your watchlist [8] or portfolio [9] and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 864 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows [10]. If you save a screener [11] we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Freeport-McMoRan Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own view, you can build a personalized Freeport-McMoRan story in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way [12]. A great starting point for your Freeport-McMoRan research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign [13] that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for more investment ideas?

If Freeport-McMoRan is only one piece of your watchlist, this is the moment to scan for other opportunities that match your style and risk comfort.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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References

^ See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan. (www.simplywall.st)
^ fast growing stocks with high insider ownership (simplywall.st)
^ Read the complete narrative. (www.simplywall.st)
^ Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. (www.simplywall.st)
^ Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative. (www.simplywall.st)
^ Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. (www.simplywall.st)
^ check out Freeport-McMoRan for example (www.simplywall.st)
^ watchlist (simplywall.st)
^ portfolio (simplywall.st)
^ 864 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows (simplywall.st)
^ save a screener (simplywall.st)
^ Do it your way (support.simplywall.st)
^ 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign (www.simplywall.st)
^ Explore Now for Free (simplywall.st)
^ Get in touch (feedback.simplywall.st)
^ [email protected] (simplywall.st)