Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Valuation Check After Earnings And Copper Demand Optimism

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Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is back in focus after reporting fourth quarter and full year 2025 results, with sales of US£5,633 million for the quarter and US£25,915 million for the year.

See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan.[2]

The latest earnings release comes after a sharp run in the stock, with a 24.53% 1 month share price return and a 60.83% 3 month share price return. The 1 year total shareholder return of 79.74% suggests momentum has been building over time.

If copper's move has caught your attention, this could be a good moment to widen your watchlist and check out aerospace and defense stocks [3] as another area of the market to research.

With earnings, copper prices and sentiment all moving the stock, the key question now is whether Freeport-McMoRan's current valuation still offers room for upside or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Freeport-McMoRan's most followed narrative puts fair value at £48.52, well below the last close at £64.67, framing the recent surge as rich versus that anchor.

Brownfield expansions in North and South America (e.g., Bagdad, El Abra, Lone Star) leverage existing infrastructure and Freeport's experience to deliver low-risk, high-return volume growth. These initiatives are positioned to bring 2.5 billion pounds of new copper supply online in structurally tight markets, directly impacting future revenues and earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.[4]

Curious what kind of revenue curve and margin profile would justify that fair value gap, and which future earnings multiple ties it all together?

The full narrative lays out a detailed growth runway, profit uplift and valuation spine that go well beyond recent price action.

Result: Fair Value of £48.52 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.[5]

However, that growth runway relies heavily on complex Indonesian operations and ore grades holding up. As a result, regulatory shifts or tougher mining conditions could quickly change the story.

Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative.[6]

The narrative driven fair value of £48.52 suggests Freeport-McMoRan is 33.3% overvalued, but our DCF model points the other way, with a fair value estimate of £82.95 and the shares trading at a 22% discount. When two methods disagree this much, which one do you find more convincing?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.[7]

FCX Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Freeport-McMoRan for example [8]).

We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist [9] or portfolio [10] and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 870 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows [11]. If you save a screener [12] we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you see the story differently or prefer to rely on your own analysis, you can build a full narrative in just a few minutes by starting with Do it your way [13].

A great starting point for your Freeport-McMoRan research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign [14] that could impact your investment decision.

If Freeport-McMoRan is on your radar, do not stop here.

Broaden your research now so you are not relying on a single stock story.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FCX [15].

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Concerned about the content? Get in touch [16] with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected][17]

References

^ Find your next quality investment (simplywall.st)
^ See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan. (www.simplywall.st)
^ aerospace and defense stocks (simplywall.st)
^ Read the complete narrative. (www.simplywall.st)
^ Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. (www.simplywall.st)
^ Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative. (www.simplywall.st)
^ Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. (www.simplywall.st)
^ check out Freeport-McMoRan for example (www.simplywall.st)
^ watchlist (simplywall.st)
^ portfolio (simplywall.st)
^ 870 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows (simplywall.st)
^ save a screener (simplywall.st)
^ Do it your way (support.simplywall.st)
^ 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign (finance.yahoo.com)
^ FCX (finance.yahoo.com)
^ Get in touch (feedback.simplywall.st)
^ [email protected] (finance.yahoo.com)