Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Valuation Check After Recent Share Price Momentum

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) stock has been drawing attention after recent price moves, with the share price closing at £56.15. Investors are weighing this level in relation to the company's fundamentals and its recent return history.

See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan.[1]

The recent 1-day share price return of 3.2% and 30-day share price return of 24.23% sit alongside a 1-year total shareholder return of 47.15% and 5-year total shareholder return of 93.59%. This suggests momentum has been building over both shorter and longer periods.

If Freeport-McMoRan's recent run has caught your eye, it could be a good moment to see what else is moving in materials and beyond with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership[2].

With Freeport-McMoRan trading at £56.15, above the average analyst price target of £51.17 yet showing an estimated 48.47% intrinsic discount, investors may question whether there is still a buying opportunity or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

At a last close of £56.15 versus a narrative fair value of £48.52, the current price sits above what this framework suggests, setting up a clear tension between market optimism and modeled cash flows.

The fair value estimate has risen slightly to approximately £48.52 from about £47.87 per share, reflecting modest upside from prior assumptions.

The future P/E multiple has risen modestly to roughly 21.9x from about 21.5x, which suggests a small increase in the valuation premium applied to forward earnings.

Read the complete narrative.[3]

Curious what justifies paying a richer future earnings multiple for a miner with measured revenue and margin assumptions baked in, and how that links back to copper demand expectations and discount rate math? The full narrative sets out the growth runway, profitability targets, and valuation bridge that together support this fair value line in the sand.

Result: Fair Value of £48.52 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.[4]

However, that fair value story can change quickly if Grasberg related operational or regulatory setbacks deepen, or if policy support for premium US copper pricing fades.

Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative.[5]

The narrative framework flags Freeport McMoRan as about 16% overvalued at £56.15 versus a fair value of £48.52. Our DCF model points in the opposite direction, with FCX trading roughly 48.5% below an estimated fair value of £108.97, which frames current pricing as a sizeable gap to modeled cash flows.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.[6]

FCX Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Freeport-McMoRan for example[7]).

We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist[8] or portfolio[9] and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 877 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows[10]. If you save a screener[11] we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you look at this and think the story should read differently, or simply want to test your own assumptions against the data, you can build a complete view in just a few minutes with Do it your way[12].

A great starting point for your Freeport-McMoRan research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign[13] that could impact your investment decision.

If you are serious about building a stronger portfolio, do not stop at one miner, use the Simply Wall St Screener to uncover focused sets of stocks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation.

We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FCX[14].

Have feedback on this article?

Concerned about the content? Get in touch[15] with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected][16]

References

1. ^ See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan. (www.simplywall.st)
2. ^ fast growing stocks with high insider ownership (simplywall.st)
3. ^ Read the complete narrative. (www.simplywall.st)
4. ^ Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. (www.simplywall.st)
5. ^ Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative. (www.simplywall.st)
6. ^ Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. (www.simplywall.st)
7. ^ check out Freeport-McMoRan for example (www.simplywall.st)
8. ^ watchlist (simplywall.st)
9. ^ portfolio (simplywall.st)
10. ^ 877 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows (simplywall.st)
11. ^ save a screener (simplywall.st)
12. ^ Do it your way (support.simplywall.st)
13. ^ 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign (finance.yahoo.com)
14. ^ FCX (finance.yahoo.com)
15. ^ Get in touch (feedback.simplywall.st)
16. ^ [email protected] (au.finance.yahoo.com)