Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Is Up 6.8% After Copper Hits Record Highs Amid Grasberg Mine Scrutiny

In recent days, benchmark copper futures in London briefly reached a record US£13,000 per ton amid mine outages and trade disruptions that raised concerns about global copper supply. This spike has put renewed focus on Freeport-McMoRan's role as a major copper producer at a time when the metal is critical for power, construction, and electrification-related industries.
While copper prices hit new highs on tight supply and strong demand, Freeport-McMoRan is simultaneously contending with legal and safety scrutiny at its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia following a fatal incident and subsequent production suspension.
With copper touching record highs on supply strains, we'll examine how this price surge affects Freeport-McMoRan's existing investment narrative and risk balance.

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To own Freeport-McMoRan, you generally need to believe in copper's long-term importance and Freeport's ability to convert that into sustainable cash flows.

The immediate upside catalyst is the recent spike in copper prices, which supports near term earnings potential, while the most acute risk now centers on operational, legal, and reputational fallout from the Grasberg Block Cave incident in Indonesia. At this stage, the copper price surge does not offset the seriousness of those Indonesia related risks.

Among recent announcements, the continued declaration of the US£0.15 per share quarterly dividend, including the February 2, 2026 payout, stands out in this context. It signals that, despite Grasberg related disruptions and multiple class action filings, Freeport has not yet altered its capital return framework, which remains an important part of the investment case for shareholders who see copper price strength as a partial buffer to Indonesia specific uncertainty.

Yet behind rising copper prices and steady dividends, investors should be aware of the unresolved safety, regulatory, and legal exposure around Grasberg...

Read the full narrative on Freeport-McMoRan (it's free!)[2]

Freeport-McMoRan's narrative projects £31.1 billion revenue and £3.3 billion earnings by 2028.

This requires 6.4% yearly revenue growth and a £1.4 billion earnings increase from £1.9 billion today.

Uncover how Freeport-McMoRan's forecasts yield a £48.52 fair value [3], a 11% downside to its current price.

FCX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Nine Simply Wall St Community fair value views on Freeport-McMoRan span roughly US£25 to US£110 per share, reflecting very different expectations. When you set those against the current Indonesia operational and legal risks, it becomes clear that you should weigh several contrasting scenarios for Freeport's future performance before forming your own view.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Freeport-McMoRan [4] - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes [5] - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FCX [6].

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References

^ 28 smaller AI-focused companies with strong growth potential (simplywall.st)
^ Read the full narrative on Freeport-McMoRan (it's free!) (simplywall.st)
^ Uncover how Freeport-McMoRan's forecasts yield a £48.52 fair value (simplywall.st)
^ Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Freeport-McMoRan (simplywall.st)
^ Create your own in under 3 minutes (support.simplywall.st)
^ FCX (finance.yahoo.com)
^ Get in touch (feedback.simplywall.st)
^ [email protected] (finance.yahoo.com)