Freeport EPS expected to outperform as Grasberg ramp-up delayed

Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX, XETRA:FPMB)[1] is set to report strong fourth-quarter results, driven by better-than-expected realized copper and gold prices, according to Jefferies analysts. The mining giant disclosed its provisional Q4 2025 results earlier this week, prompting Jefferies to update its model. Assuming Freeport hit operational targets, Jefferies now estimates fourth-quarter EBITDA at £1.62 billion and EPS at £0.35, comfortably above consensus expectations of £1.32 billion and £0.25 per share.

"FCX continues to be one of our top picks," the analysts wrote, maintaining their Buy rating while raising their price target to £68 per share to reflect upside risk from ongoing strength in copper and gold markets. The quarter was marked by the continued suspension of Grasberg operations following a mudslide incident in September 2025, which limited copper sales to around 0.6 billion pounds at net cash costs of £2.47 per pound. Full-year 2025 production is expected at 3.5 billion pounds at £1.68 per pound, with year-end net debt estimated at £5.7 billion, or £2.5 billion excluding the Indonesian smelter debt.

Looking ahead, Freeport's copper production guidance remains at 3.45 billion pounds for 2026 and 4.1 billion pounds for 2027, assuming Grasberg operations return to full capacity by the end of 2027.

Jefferies expects the company to benefit from higher earnings and a potential expansion of its equity valuation as production ramps up.

References

1. ^ Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX, XETRA:FPMB) (www.proactiveinvestors.com)