Assessing Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) Valuation After Its Recent Copper-Fueled Share Price Rally

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has quietly pushed higher, up about 15% over the past month and nearly 29% in the past 3 months, as investors lean into the copper demand story. See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan.[1] Zooming out, that recent momentum sits on top of a solid backdrop, with the stock at £51.93 after a strong multi month share price run and a near 40% one year total shareholder return, suggesting investors are increasingly pricing in copper driven growth.

If Freeport McMoRan's move has you thinking about what else is working in cyclical, capital intensive sectors, it might be worth scouting fast growing stocks with high insider ownership[2] as a source of fresh ideas. Yet with Freeport McMoRan now trading above the average analyst target and riding a powerful copper narrative, investors face a key question: is the stock still undervalued or is future growth already fully priced in? Advertisement

Most Popular Narrative: 7% Overvalued

With Freeport McMoRan closing at £51.93 against a narrative fair value of about £48.52, the story leans on aggressive copper driven upside to justify today's premium.

Brownfield expansions in North and South America (e.g., Bagdad, El Abra, Lone Star) leverage existing infrastructure and Freeport's experience to deliver low risk, high return volume growth.

These initiatives are positioned to bring 2.5 billion pounds of new copper supply online in structurally tight markets directly impacting future revenues and earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.[3] Curious how this expansion wave translates into a richer valuation multiple? The narrative leans on faster revenue, fatter margins, and a profit profile that looks more like a growth compounder than a typical miner.

Want to see the exact assumptions driving that call? Result: Fair Value of £48.52 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.[4]

However, lingering Grasberg operational uncertainty and potential rollbacks in U.S. copper policy support could quickly weaken the bullish case that underpins current valuations. Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative.[5]

Another View: Market Ratios Send a Different Signal

While the narrative fair value suggests modest overvaluation, standard earnings ratios flash a stronger warning. FCX trades on a 36.1x price to earnings ratio versus 27.4x for peers and a 26.5x fair ratio, which implies investors are paying a steep premium that could unwind quickly if sentiment shifts.

See what the numbers say about this price -- find out in our valuation breakdown.[6]

NYSE:FCX PE Ratio as at Jan 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Freeport-McMoRan for example[7]). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist[8] or portfolio[9] and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 875 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows[10].

If you save a screener[11] we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Freeport-McMoRan Narrative

If you look at the numbers differently or would rather test your own assumptions, you can build a personalized narrative in just minutes: Do it your way[12]. A great starting point for your Freeport-McMoRan research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign[13] that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Before you move on, you may want to explore your next opportunity by tapping the power of focused stock screens that surface high quality ideas you might otherwise miss. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation.

We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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References

1. ^ See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan. (www.simplywall.st)
2. ^ fast growing stocks with high insider ownership (simplywall.st)
3. ^ Read the complete narrative. (www.simplywall.st)
4. ^ Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. (www.simplywall.st)
5. ^ Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative. (www.simplywall.st)
6. ^ See what the numbers say about this price -- find out in our valuation breakdown. (www.simplywall.st)
7. ^ check out Freeport-McMoRan for example (www.simplywall.st)
8. ^ watchlist (simplywall.st)
9. ^ portfolio (simplywall.st)
10. ^ 875 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows (simplywall.st)
11. ^ save a screener (simplywall.st)
12. ^ Do it your way (support.simplywall.st)
13. ^ 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign (www.simplywall.st)
14. ^ Explore Now for Free (simplywall.st)
15. ^ Get in touch (feedback.simplywall.st)
16. ^ [email protected] (simplywall.st)