Is Freeport-McMoRan Still Attractive After a 25% Rally and Strong Copper Optimism?

• Investors may be wondering if Freeport McMoRan is still a smart way to gain exposure to copper and long term commodity demand, or if most of the upside is already priced in.

• The stock has been on a strong run lately, up 4.8% over the last week, 18.0% over the past month, and 25.1% year to date, adding to a 105.5% gain over five years.

• These moves have come as investors refocus on copper's role in electrification and infrastructure, with headlines around supply constraints and long dated demand from renewable projects putting producers like Freeport McMoRan back in the spotlight. At the same time, shifting expectations for interest rates and growth have been affecting the broader materials sector and amplifying the swings in mining stocks.

• Despite the excitement, Freeport McMoRan only scores a 2/6 valuation check score[1]. This suggests the market may be closer to fair value than the recent rally implies, at least by some traditional metrics.

  Next, we will break down what different valuation approaches say about the stock and introduce a more nuanced way to think about value that we will return to at the end.

Freeport-McMoRan scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown[2].

The Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today using an appropriate rate. For Freeport McMoRan, the 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model starts with last twelve month free cash flow of about £1.4 billion and then applies analyst forecasts and longer term assumptions.

Analysts project free cash flow rising to roughly £8.4 billion in 2028 and £9.0 billion by 2029, with further growth to more than £11.4 billion by 2035 based on extrapolated trends.

When these projected cash flows are discounted back to the present, they produce an estimated intrinsic value of about £110.26 per share.

Relative to the current share price, this output from the model implies the stock is about 57.0% undervalued, indicating the market may not be fully reflecting Freeport McMoRan's modeled cash generation potential tied to copper demand.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Freeport-McMoRan is undervalued by 57.0%. Track this in your watchlist[3] or portfolio[4], or discover 908 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows[5].

FCX Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Freeport-McMoRan.[6]

Story Continues

For a profitable business like Freeport McMoRan, the price to earnings ratio is a useful way to gauge how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of current earnings. In general, companies with stronger growth prospects and lower perceived risk can justify a higher PE multiple.

Slower growth or higher uncertainty usually means a lower, more conservative multiple is appropriate.

Freeport McMoRan currently trades on a PE of about 32.95x, noticeably above both the Metals and Mining industry average of roughly 24.50x and the peer group average of around 22.13x. At first glance, that premium suggests the market is already pricing in elevated expectations for copper demand and company specific growth relative to sector alternatives.

Simply Wall St's Fair Ratio framework goes a step further by estimating what PE multiple Freeport McMoRan should trade on given its earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry dynamics, market cap and risk factors. For FCX, this Fair Ratio is 28.05x, which sits below the current 32.95x market multiple.

That gap points to the shares trading ahead of what the fundamentals alone would justify on this measure.

Result: OVERVALUED

NYSE:FCX PE Ratio as at Dec 2025

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1445 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth[7].

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of Freeport McMoRan's future to concrete numbers like revenue, earnings, margins and, ultimately, fair value. A Narrative is your story about the company expressed as a financial forecast, which the Simply Wall St platform (within the Community page used by millions of investors) then translates into an implied fair value you can compare to the current share price to inform a potential decision to buy, hold or sell. Because Narratives are updated dynamically as new information, such as earnings, policy changes or copper price moves, comes in, your fair value view stays current rather than static.

For example, one Freeport McMoRan Narrative might assume faster revenue growth, higher long term margins and a future PE near 27x, producing a fair value above today's price, while a more cautious Narrative could build in slower growth, margin pressure from Indonesia risks and a lower multiple closer to 22x, yielding a lower fair value and a more defensive stance on the stock.

Do you think there's more to the story for Freeport-McMoRan? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying![8]

NYSE:FCX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FCX[9].

Have feedback on this article?

Concerned about the content? Get in touch[10] with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected][11]

References

1. ^ 2/6 valuation check score (finance.yahoo.com)
2. ^ full valuation breakdown (www.simplywall.st)
3. ^ watchlist (simplywall.st)
4. ^ portfolio (simplywall.st)
5. ^ 908 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows (simplywall.st)
6. ^ Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Freeport-McMoRan. (www.simplywall.st)
7. ^ Discover 1445 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth (simplywall.st)
8. ^ Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! (simplywall.st)
9. ^ FCX (finance.yahoo.com)
10. ^ Get in touch (feedback.simplywall.st)
11. ^ [email protected] (finance.yahoo.com)