Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): Reassessing Valuation After a 27% Monthly Surge and Strong Copper Price Support

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has been catching investors attention after a strong month, with the stock climbing roughly 27% while copper prices stay firm and sharpening the focus on its earnings power.

See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan.[1]

That surge has flipped sentiment, with the roughly 27% 1 month share price return feeding into a stronger 33.69% year to date share price gain and a solid 5 year total shareholder return of 119.68%. This suggests momentum is very much building rather than fading.

If Freeport McMoRan's move has you thinking bigger about cyclical opportunities, it could be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership[2] for other fast moving names with committed insiders.

But after such a sharp rerating and a share price now hovering slightly above consensus targets, is Freeport McMoRan still trading below its true earnings power, or is the market already pricing in the next leg of growth?

With Freeport McMoRan last closing at £50.64 against a narrative fair value of £48.52, the story leans toward modest overpricing despite robust copper tailwinds.

Brownfield expansions in North and South America (e.g., Bagdad, El Abra, Lone Star) leverage existing infrastructure and Freeport's experience to deliver low risk, high return volume growth. These initiatives are positioned to bring 2.5 billion pounds of new copper supply online in structurally tight markets directly impacting future revenues and earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.[3]

Curious how disciplined expansion, rising margins, and a richer future earnings multiple all combine into that fair value?

The narrative reveals the full playbook.

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.[4]

However, lingering Grasberg operational uncertainty and shifting Indonesian policy could quickly undermine margin assumptions and capital expenditure discipline baked into today's optimistic narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative.[5]

While the narrative fair value hints at modest overpricing, our DCF work paints a very different picture. On those cash flow assumptions, Freeport McMoRan looks deeply undervalued, with fair value closer to £110 a share, not £50. Could the market be underestimating its long term cash engine?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.[6]

FCX Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Freeport-McMoRan for example[7]).

We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist[8] or portfolio[9] and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 902 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows[10]. If you save a screener[11] we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you see the story differently or want to test your own assumptions against the numbers, you can build a custom view in just minutes. Do it your way[12]

A great starting point for your Freeport-McMoRan research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign[13] that could impact your investment decision.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation.

We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FCX[14].

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Concerned about the content? Get in touch[15] with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected][16]

References

1. ^ See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan. (www.simplywall.st)
2. ^ fast growing stocks with high insider ownership (simplywall.st)
3. ^ Read the complete narrative. (www.simplywall.st)
4. ^ Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. (www.simplywall.st)
5. ^ Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative. (www.simplywall.st)
6. ^ Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. (www.simplywall.st)
7. ^ check out Freeport-McMoRan for example (www.simplywall.st)
8. ^ watchlist (simplywall.st)
9. ^ portfolio (simplywall.st)
10. ^ 902 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows (simplywall.st)
11. ^ save a screener (simplywall.st)
12. ^ Do it your way (support.simplywall.st)
13. ^ 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign (finance.yahoo.com)
14. ^ FCX (finance.yahoo.com)
15. ^ Get in touch (feedback.simplywall.st)
16. ^ [email protected] (uk.finance.yahoo.com)