Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): A Fresh Look at Valuation After This Month’s Copper-Fueled Share Price Rise

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has quietly ground out steady gains this month, with the stock up about 13% and roughly 19% year to date, as copper prices and demand expectations continue to drive sentiment.

See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan.[1]

That latest move builds on a solid trend, with Freeport-McMoRan's 30 day share price return of about 13% and five year total shareholder return of just over 100% suggesting momentum is still very much intact.

If copper's strength has you thinking about where else growth and capital discipline might line up, now is a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership[2].

With shares hovering just below analyst targets, yet trading at a steep discount to some intrinsic value estimates, the real question is whether Freeport-McMoRan is still mispriced or if the market already reflects its copper fueled growth.

With Freeport-McMoRan last closing at £45.00 against a narrative fair value of £47.87, the current setup leans toward modest upside if the assumptions land.

Analysts expect earnings to reach £3.3 billion (and earnings per share of £2.36) by about September 2028, up from £1.9 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting £5.8 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting £2.2 billion.

Read the complete narrative.[3]

Curious how a mature miner ends up with a future earnings profile and valuation multiple more often seen in fast growth sectors, not heavy industry? The forecast hinges on a powerful blend of expanding margins, accelerating top line, and a premium profit multiple that still needs to be earned.

Want to see exactly how those moving parts stack up to justify that higher fair value and where expectations quietly stretch the most? Dive into the full narrative to unpack the numbers driving this call.

Result: Fair Value of £47.87 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.[4]

However, elevated reliance on Indonesian operations and potential erosion of today's copper price premium could quickly undermine those margin and valuation assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative.[5]

On earnings based metrics, Freeport-McMoRan looks far less forgiving. The shares trade on about 31.3 times earnings, well above both the US Metals and Mining industry at roughly 22 times and a fair ratio of 27.9 times.

This implies investors are already paying a premium for growth and execution.

See what the numbers say about this price -- find out in our valuation breakdown.[6]

NYSE:FCX PE Ratio as at Dec 2025

If you see the story differently or simply want to test your own thesis using the same tools and forecasts, you can build a complete narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way[7].

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards[8] investors are optimistic about regarding Freeport-McMoRan.

Do not stop at one strong idea. Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to quickly surface high conviction opportunities that match exactly how you like to invest.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.

Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FCX[9].

Have feedback on this article?

Concerned about the content? Get in touch[10] with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected][11]

References

1. ^ See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan. (www.simplywall.st)
2. ^ fast growing stocks with high insider ownership (simplywall.st)
3. ^ Read the complete narrative. (www.simplywall.st)
4. ^ Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. (www.simplywall.st)
5. ^ Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative. (www.simplywall.st)
6. ^ See what the numbers say about this price -- find out in our valuation breakdown. (www.simplywall.st)
7. ^ Do it your way (support.simplywall.st)
8. ^ 2 key rewards (finance.yahoo.com)
9. ^ FCX (finance.yahoo.com)
10. ^ Get in touch (feedback.simplywall.st)
11. ^ [email protected] (uk.finance.yahoo.com)