How the Story Around Freeport-McMoRan Is Shifting After Recent Analyst and Market Developments

Freeport-McMoRan's stock has seen its Fair Value Estimate rise slightly, from £47.71 to £47.87 per share, alongside a modest increase in the Discount Rate. This adjustment reflects both positive analyst sentiment regarding long-term copper demand, as well as lingering concerns about operational risks and broader market volatility. Stay tuned to learn how investors can monitor further shifts in the company's outlook and remain informed about the evolving narrative.

Analyst Price Targets don't always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Freeport-McMoRan.[1]

Analyst coverage of Freeport-McMoRan in recent months has featured a range of updated views, highlighting both constructive and cautious outlooks. Below, we summarize key bullish and bearish takeaways based on the latest research from notable firms.

Bullish Takeaways

Several analysts have upgraded Freeport-McMoRan or affirmed positive ratings, citing improved clarity in company outlook, attractive valuation, and leverage to anticipated strength in copper and gold prices. Scotiabank, UBS, Citi, BofA, HSBC, and Wells Fargo are among those voicing more optimistic stances.
Wells Fargo recently initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a £47 price target, highlighting anticipated tightness in the 2026 copper market due to supply disruptions and positioning Freeport as a top pick due to higher commodity prices offsetting production setbacks.
UBS increased its price target to £48 (from £42.50) and upgraded Freeport-McMoRan to Buy, noting the company's favorable risk-reward profile.
BofA raised its price target to £58 from £50 while maintaining a Buy rating, recognizing that North American demand could compensate for slowing Chinese consumption.
Other supportive commentary has emphasized Freeport's strong balance sheet, flexible management amid operational challenges, and the likelihood of share re-rating if copper prices stay elevated.
Key reservations among bullish analysts include potential valuation concerns. Some believe near-term upside may already be priced in, and that execution around mining restarts remains a focus.

Bearish Takeaways

A number of firms have turned more cautious following operational incidents at Grasberg, lowering ratings and price targets out of concerns for production guidance and near-term profitability.
Morgan Stanley, BMO Capital, and Raymond James all lowered their price targets, with Morgan Stanley shifting to £44 (from £46), BMO Capital to £47 (from £48), and Raymond James to £45 (from £46), pointing to revised expectations after company guidance and production plan updates.
BofA downgraded Freeport-McMoRan to Neutral in the wake of the Grasberg incident, lowering its target to £42 from £50 and describing the operational challenges as an overhang that could last through early 2026.
Freedom Capital and Scotiabank have both downgraded the shares after the incident, citing lowered copper output, persistent near-term operational risk, and a lack of clarity on recovery timelines or free cash flow inflection points.
Bearish analysts consistently highlight the impact of jurisdictional risk, especially due to Grasberg's location in Indonesia. They caution that while Freeport's global asset base is strong, risks tied to major projects remain elevated in the short term.

Story Continues

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative![2]

NYSE:FCX Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

The U.S.

Department of the Interior has added copper and silver to its list of "critical minerals." This designation raises the profile of Freeport-McMoRan's primary products and may influence new tariff policies affecting these metals in the future.
Indonesia is close to reaching a deal with Freeport-McMoRan for the company to sell a 12% stake in its Indonesian unit to a local partner. This transaction represents the completion of a significant administrative milestone.
A class action lawsuit has been filed against Freeport-McMoRan, alleging failures to ensure safety at the Grasberg Block Cave mine and exposing the company to regulatory and reputational challenges.
The company has reported notable year-over-year declines in both copper and gold production for the third quarter and the first nine months of 2025. Operations at the Grasberg mine were temporarily suspended following a deadly mud rush incident, with recovery and investigation efforts still ongoing.

The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, from £47.71 to £47.87 per share.
The Discount Rate increased modestly, moving from 8.20% to 8.37%.
The Revenue Growth forecast has fallen, shifting from 9.45% to 7.87%.
The Net Profit Margin estimate edged down, from 12.60% to 12.40%.
The Future P/E (Price/Earnings) ratio has increased from 18.20x to 21.55x.

This reflects higher valuation multiples.

Narratives are a smarter way to invest, connecting the story behind Freeport-McMoRan to future numbers and today's fair value. On Simply Wall St's Community page, you can easily access these dynamic perspectives, used by millions, to compare fair value with price, spot buy or sell signals, and keep up as new news or earnings emerge. Narratives evolve with the market, putting actionable insights at your fingertips.

Read the full Freeport-McMoRan Narrative [3] for a complete breakdown, and stay updated on:

How new U.S. smelters, innovation, and policy tailwinds could drive lower costs, higher margins, and stronger earnings growth.
The risks of overreliance on Indonesian operations, declining ore grades, and shifting global competition that could challenge future profits.
The analysts' consensus on what Freeport-McMoRan should be worth, and how fair value changes with market or operational events.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation.

We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FCX [4].

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References

^ Analyst Price Targets don't always capture the full story.

Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Freeport-McMoRan. (www.simplywall.st)
^ Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative! (simplywall.st)
^ Freeport-McMoRan Narrative (simplywall.st)
^ FCX (finance.yahoo.com)
^ Get in touch (feedback.simplywall.st)
^ [email protected] (uk.finance.yahoo.com)