Freeport-McMoRan Q3 2025 Preview: Grasberg Setback Tests Copper’s Long Game
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. 
FCX reports third-quarter 2025 results before the market opens on Thursday, October 23. Analysts forecast EPS of £0.40 on revenue of £6.7 billion, with the market focused on how copper's bullish long-term narrative can overcome significant near-term operational challenges. The stock is up 7% YTD.[1]
Investors will focus on several fronts.
The realized price per pound of copper after recent volatility in copper futures, and output levels. However, much of the Q3 narrative will revolve around a major mud-rush incident that occurred in September at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia. The disruption forced management to revise its Q3 production forecasts downward and significantly lower the outlook for 2026.
For this week's call, investors will want critical updates on the recovery timeline at the GBC mine, which is not expected to return to pre-incident production levels until 2027.
Equally important will be Freeport's capital-expenditure and cash-flow outlook, as global demand for copper in electrification, infrastructure, and clean-energy storage continues to rise. Investors will also keep an eye on gold production, since Freeport's byproduct volumes have become more meaningful following gold's recent rally.
For Freeport, the key question now is whether the long-term strength of its copper portfolio and growth projects can offset the financial impact of the Grasberg setback. Investors will also listen closely for management's tone on costs and demand heading into 2026.
Clear guidance on unit net cash costs and the overall copper supply-demand balance could dictate investor confidence through the remainder of the year.