TransLogistics

Transport and Logistics Network

The North American road freight market faces uncertainty

August 20, 2025

By [1] The North American road freight market is in one of the most uncertain times in its history with unpredictable trade flows and low consumer confidence brought about by tariffs. It faces these issues after a 12-quarter period of what many describe as a freight recession, and there may yet be several quarters of uncertainty to come.

The unpredictable trade environment will settle down though and profitability is improving for many of the largest trucking companies. Ti's latest figures show that the North America road freight market is worth EUR364.623bn as of 2024, growing by 1.3% y-o-y and on a nominal growth rate of -2.1%. Individual country figures are available on Ti's GSCi platform[2] along with detailed analysis of the US, Canada and Mexico.

OUTLOOK US road freight companies' leaderships in Q2 2025 seemed to believe that the return to stability may well start to appear sometime in the next four quarters, so there may yet be as many as another 12 months of short-term uncertainty. On the demand side, for US consumers the increased tariffs on goods made outside their country will cost more and this may prove a headwind to consumer confidence.

There may be an inflationary impact to the tariffs too, even with intra-North American imports that are still subject to often quite stiff tariff regimes. All three countries will be affected in some way, and it is likely that Mexico will feel the pain the most. On the supply side however, operational cost increases are slowing down and market capacity is tightening.

This may well lead to improved bottom lines for the companies that continue to trade. Author: Transport Intelligence Source: Ti Insight

Supply chain strategists can use GSCi - Ti's online data platform[3] - to identify opportunities for growth, support strategic decisions, help them stay abreast of industry trends and development, as well as understand future impacts on the industry.

Visit GSCI subscription[4] to sign up today or contact Michael Clover for a free demonstration: [email protected][5] | +44 (0) 1666 519907

References

  1. ^ (ti-insight.com)
  2. ^ GSCi platform (www.gscintell.com)
  3. ^ GSCi - Ti's online data platform (gsci.ti-insight.com)
  4. ^ GSCI subscription (gsci.ti-insight.com)
  5. ^ [email protected] (ti-insight.com)

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