Train passengers face price hikes and fewer seats after HS2 cancellation

Prices are set to be hiked on train routes[1] between London, Birmingham and Manchester due to the cancellation of HS2[2], i can reveal. According to documents seen by i, the UK’s existing train network faces an overcrowding crisis[3] as a result of issues caused by the decision to cancel the northern leg of the high speed railway. Trains are expected to carry thousands of fewer passengers a day, closures to repair the line are likely to increase and fares will likely have to rise to curb demand.

According to policymakers, aborting the HS2 northern section will worsen the already poor state of the rail on one of the UK’s most important rail lines. Within five years, there is expected to be an 8 per cent drop in capacity for trains going from London to Glasgow, due to current government plans. These plans would see HS2 trains continue up the West Coast Main Line on the existing track, despite the HS2 track ending at Birmingham New Street.

HS2 trains are able to carry around 50 fewer passengers per service than a current Pendolino train as existing stations north of Birmingham do not have long enough platforms for two trains to be “tethered” together, as had been planned on the dedicated HS2 line. This would mean there would be around 6,000 fewer seats between London and Manchester per day, 4,000 fewer to Liverpool and 2,000 fewer to Glasgow. By the scheduled completion of HS2, there could be 20 per cent more passengers wanting to board trains than they are built for, causing serious problems for the future of the line.

This includes standing passengers, meaning 20 per cent more passengers than an already full train, including those standing. According to industry sources, price increases would be needed to artificially reduce demand, due to the lack of capacity. It is currently unclear how high prices would need to rise.

The precise nature of price rises will not be known for years, but would be necessary to prevent severe overcrowding on some services. A rail industry source told i it was “so obvious it was inescapable” that a new rail line linking England’s three main cities would need to be completed, due to the problems with capacity. Diagrams seen by i show that the route between Wilmslow at Manchester is expected to be “at capacity” with additional capacity issues outside of Stafford following the cancellation of HS2 to Manchester.

As of today, services between London and Rugby, Coventry to Wolverhampton and Macclesfield to Manchester are already at capacity, with timetable constraints due to track availability across much of the Midlands, North and Scotland.

Seven current and future “pinchpoints” have been identified, which have the potential to severely undermine services.

These include major stations such as Manchester Piccadilly, Stafford and Birmingham New Street station, which have been described as “bottlenecks” due to limited platform options. The issues on the West Coast Main Line are likely to have a knock-on effect across the rest of the rail network, with freight and smaller commuter trains also thought to be negatively impacted, due to congestion on track. This is likely to result in train lines across the west coast closed for extended periods of time, with the current prediction that the lines will have to close across groups of consecutive weekends for a number of years.

Norman Baker, former rail minister, said: “What we’ve ended up with is a disaster as the worst of all worlds. We have a bleeding stump of a high speed rail line between Birmingham and Old Oak Common. “It will create congestion from north of Birmingham, and cause issues for freight services, there is a desperate need to need have another look at the Birmingham to Manchester line.

“Only in Britain would you see a new high-speed rail line get built, cancelled and end up costing people more.” Darren Caplan, chief executive of the Railway Industry Association, told i that it would be “inevitable” that any future government would need to return to the prospect of reviving HS2’s later stages. He said: “It’s very clear the UK has a North-South transport connectivity gap that risks holding back economic growth.

“All the experts, including the current Government’s own National Infrastructure Commission, agree we have a capacity problem right now, and that it is set to get much bigger as demand for travel between not just London but a host of major cities around the country including Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds, grows substantially between now and 2050. “The next UK Government, whatever its colours, has a strategic choice about whether it will invest quickly enough to address the constraints to growth. Incredibly, current plans may see thousands of fewer train seats between the North and Midlands, because there is now no plan to run full length HS2 trains to the North.

There is no easy way to upgrade the West Coast Mainline substantially, and we are out of options to expand the motorway network.

So we will inevitably come back to a new rail line – the only question is whether we act and when.”

The Department for Transport told i that no decision had yet been made on fares.

References

1. ^ train routes (inews.co.uk)
2. ^ HS2 (inews.co.uk)
3. ^ overcrowding crisis (inews.co.uk)