Citi to cut 20,000 jobs
Citigroup is to cut 20,000 jobs after the Wall Street bank suffered its worst quarterly loss since the financial crisis.
The company will cut about 10pc of its workforce over the next two years as part of drastic measures to strip out costs.
Citi, which is one of the world’s biggest investment banks, swung to a $1.8bn (£1.4bn) loss from a $2.5bn profit a year earlier after booking a string of impairments and charges linked to its exit from Russia, the devaluation of the Argentinian peso and costs related to its sweeping overhaul.
The quarterly loss is the steepest since Citi posted a $7.6bn loss in 2009 during the depths of the financial crisis.
It comes as chief executive Jane Fraser battles to slim down the bloated lender and save around $2bn a year.
The roles will be lost over the next two to three years and reduce Citi’s workforce from 200,000 to 180,000.
Ms Fraser did not specify where the jobs will be cut but they are likely to be a mix of redundancies and vacant positions left unfilled. Citi employs 16,000 in the UK, with 11,500 of those based in London.
Citi finance chief Mark Mason said the job cuts were “tough on morale”.
A string of banks have laid off staff in recent months with Metro announcing 850 job cuts[1] in November and Barclays shedding 5,000 roles last year.
Recruiters Robert Walters and Hays Group said this week they had each axed hundreds of roles[2] as Britain finds itself in the grip of the longest slump in jobs vacancies on record.
Universal Music Group, the world’s largest record label, is also wielding the axe. The company will lay off hundreds of employees in the first quarter of the year amid a slowdown in sales across the industry, it said on Friday.
Citi posted $17.4bn of revenue during the quarter but a 23pc rise in operating expenses drove the lender into the red.
Costs included a $880m hit from the recent devaluation of the peso by Argentina’s President Javier Milei and a $1.3bn buffer to weather further currency exposures in the country and risks related to Russia.
It suffered a further $1.7bn writedown to top up a US deposit insurance scheme following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and a restructuring charge of $780m tied to its overhaul was also booked.
Since taking over Citi last year, Ms Fraser has tried to slim down the bank by shrinking down to five main divisions and removing layers of middle management.
Citi runs an investment bank helping large corporate clients, a wealth division for well-heeled clients and a retail bank for customers in the US.
The lender is in the process of quitting 14 international markets where it has a consumer presence. Citi closed its UK retail bank in 2022 under Ms Fraser and retrenched to focus solely on the US market.
Fraser is the first and only female chief executive of a Wall Street bank[3].
Ms Fraser took over at Citi in 2020
Credit: REUTERS/Tyrone Siu
She was born in Edinburgh and studied at Cambridge before joining Goldman Sachs in London.
She has described herself as feeling like the “boring girl from Scotland” when she joined Goldman.
“Everyone else was European, spoke multiple languages, was a lot more exotic and interesting than me,” she said.
Separately on Friday, JP Morgan reported a record annual profit of $50bn, helping drive its shares to a record high of $176.31.
Jamie Dimon, chief executive, hailed the results but warned inflation could be “stickier” than expected due to factors such as spending on the green economy amid a push by President Biden.
He said: “It is important to note that the economy is being fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus.”
Read the latest updates below.
Markets Hub embed test[4]
6:08PM
[5]
Wrapping up
Thanks for joining us today. We’ll be back live blogging the markets and the world of business on Monday, but there will be lots of business analysis and comment over the weekend elsewhere on The Telegraph website.
In the meantime, do check out the following stories:
- Top City law firm names and shames work-from-home shirkers[6]
- Labour peer spends £100,000 of taxpayers’ money flying from Newcastle to Westminster[7]
- Kazakh airline flies to the rescue of Britain’s beleaguered stock market[8]
Half of Nestle Ice Cream business up for sale as private equity owner seeks exit
A 50pc stake in an ice cream giant headquartered in Britain is up for sale.
Private equity firm PAI Partners is seeking to sell its half of Froneri in a deal that could raise over $10bn (£7.84), according to a Bloomberg report.
Froneri was created as a joint venue with Nestle in 2016 and inherited Nestle’s collection of brands including Häagen-Dazs and the Lyons Maid catalogue of British ice-cream brands, popular with children since 1925, including Fab.
PAI Partners had previously bought R&R, a manufacturer of ice cream, in 2013, which also became part of Froneri.
Rosie Fortescue, Binky Felstead and Anna-Louise Felstead taste Haagen-Dazs Lychee Raspberry Rose at a product launch in 2016
Credit: David Parry/PA
5:48PM
[10]
US regulator takes ‘unprecedented’ step in oversight of Boeing
America’s Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has said it will increase oversight of Boeing and audit production of the 737 Max 9 jetliner after a panel blew off an Alaska Airlines plane during a flight last week.
The FAA said it is reconsidering a long-standing practice of relying on employees at aircraft manufacturers to perform some safety analysis of planes.
FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker said: “The FAA is exploring the use of an independent third party to oversee Boeing’s inspections and its quality system.”
Former congressman Peter DeFazio, who chaired a US House of Representatives committee that investigated Max crashes that occurred in in 2018 and 2019, said today that the FAA’s actions are needed to rein in quality and safety problems at Boeing.
“This is a this is an extraordinary step by the administrator of the FAA, one that is long overdue.
“The possibility that Boeing will … be subject to independent third party oversight – and I would expect that will have to be paid for by Boeing – that would be a massive, unprecedented step to force the unwilling executives at Boeing to shape up the company.”
Boeing has been contacted for comment.
Deutsche Bank looking at M&A to boost scale
Germany’s leading bank wants to bulk up and is studying various mergers and acquisition opportunities to add scale, a Bloomberg report has said.
The bank, which was founded in 1870, has four divisions. It is well known internationally as an investment bank, but it also has divisions including a private bank aimed at wealthy individuals and small to medium-sized companies, a corporate bank in Germany, and an asset manager.
Deutsche Bank declined to comment.
A worker walks past Deutsche Bank offices in London
Credit: Toby Melville/Reuters
5:10PM
[12]
Delta Air Lines plunges 8pc after it scales back its profit prediction
Shares in Delta Air Lines dropped 8pc in trading today after the airline scaled down its annual profit outlook.
Delta said full-year earnings will be $6 to $7 a share – down from an earlier prediction of more than $7 a share. Analysts had already trimmed their expectations to $6.50 a year, but the update from Delta was enough to spook investors.
Delta is the first US airline to post fourth-quarter results, and its report sent shares of American, United, Southwest and Alaska down.
Delta said Friday that it will buy 20 Airbus A350s and take options to buy 20 more of the long-range jetliners. Delta expects to get the first ones in 2026.
The A350s will have more premium seating than the planes they replace, which will play into Delta’s strategy of pursuing high-end travellers who are more insulated from ups and downs in the economy.
The logo for Delta on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange
Credit: Richard Drew/AP
4:55PM
[13]
Volvo and Tesla cut production as parts dry up
Carmakers Tesla and Volvo said they were suspending some production in Europe due to a shortage of components, the first clear sign that attacks on shipping in the Red Sea are hitting manufacturers.
Tesla told Reuters it will suspend most car production at its factory near Berlin from Jan 29 to Feb 11, because of a lack of components after many ships were re-routed around the southern tip of Africa.
The company said:
The armed conflicts in the Red Sea and the associated shifts in transport routes between Europe and Asia via the Cape of Good Hope are having an impact on production in Gruenheide.
The considerably longer transportation times are creating a gap in supply chains.
Volvo Car, which is majority-owned by China’s Geely, said it will pause output at its plant in Gent in Belgium for three days next week due to a delayed delivery of gearboxes.
Adding to the logistical headaches hampering trade, low water levels due to drought have reduced crossings of the Panama Canal, another key maritime trade route.
A worker installs wheels on a car at a Volvo factory
Credit: Ng Han Guan/AP
4:51PM
[14]
FTSE closes in the green
The FTSE 100 was up 0.66pc today. The biggest risers were JD Sports, up 3.72pc, followed by Endeavour Mining, up 3.51pc. Burberry was the biggest faller, down 4.78pc, followed by British Airways owner IAG, down 2.73pc.
Over in the mid-cap FTSE 250, the index was up 0.52pc. The biggest riser was energy sector manufacturer Hunting, up 7.64pc, followed by the publishing business Future, up 7pc. The biggest faller was Close Brothers, down 4.22pc, followed by Darktrace, down 3.69pc.
Shipping delays could slow decline in inflation
Shipping delays – due to attacks by Houthi rebels – contributed to a 1.3pc decline in world trade in December.
Julian Hinz of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany said the “consequences for consumer prices in Europe are scarcely to be expected, since the share of freight costs in the value of high priced goods such as consumer electronics is a fraction of a percent.”
However, analysts at JP Morgan say that the cost increase could slow the recent decline in inflation: “While these cost increases are coming off low levels, they will reinforce the fading of recent deflationary dynamics for goods prices.”
Record company behind Taylor Swift and Elton John to make hundreds redundant
The world’s largest record record company, which represents performers such as Taylor Swift and Drake, is to cut hundreds of jobs in the first quarter of 2024, according to a Bloomberg report.
Universal Music Group is reportedly responding to slower growth, after years of double-digit growth fuelled by the rise of streaming services such as Spotify and Apple Music, which have displaced music piracy.
Universal was contacted for comment.
Taylor Swift, right, takes selfies with fans as she arrives at the MTV Video Music Awards on Aug 26 2019, in Newark, New Jersey
Credit: Charles Sykes/Invision/AP
4:25PM
[17]
Shipping costs rise 310pc from Suez crisis
The cost of shipping goods has risen more than threefold since November, according to new data noted in a briefing from global logistics company DSV.
The firm, which is traded on the Nasdaq Copenhagen exchange, published figures showing that a company that had spent $756 on container shipping in November would now be spending $3,103.
The industry figures, from the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, are widely used to set freight charges from China.
Earlier this month, DSV warned that:
Carriers are stringently implementing surcharges due to the overall increased cost situation of higher fuel and insurance costs, while operating via the Cape of Good Hope. This also applies to trades which have no direct link to the Red Sea, such as transatlantic or transpacific freight.
Barclays’ ex-chief raises $50m for fintech
10X Banking Technology, a fintech company founded by the former Barclays chief executive Antony Jenkins, has raised an additional $50m (£39m) from investors, according to reports.
The business has reportedly raised hundreds of millions of dollars from investors such as BlackRock, JP Morgan and Nationwide since 2016.
10X provides software to banks, including Chase UK.
The Telegraph has approached 10X for comment. Mr Jenkins reportedly declined to comment to Sky, which first reported the additional investment.
Antony Jenkins speaks during the 2012 Clinton Global Initiative annual meeting in New York
Credit: Stephen Chernin/AFP/Getty Images
3:46PM
[19]
Gatwick owner sold to BlackRock in $12.5bn deal
Gatwick Airport’s co-owner has been sold to US investment giant BlackRock for $12.5bn (£9.8bn) in a deal described by the founder as a “marriage made in heaven”, writes Michael Bow:
Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) owns a minority stake in the London hub and also co-owns Edinburgh Airport.
The deal marks a significant push by BlackRock, the world’s largest fund manager, into infrastructure.
BlackRock said the market was worth $1 trillion and the growth of the digital economy would lead to greater demand for the broadband, mobile phone towers and data centres.
GIP was co-founded by Bayo Ogunlesi, a Nigerian-born banker who has had a successful career on Wall Street.
British businessman Michael McGhee, a former Credit Suisse banker, also co-founded the business with Mr Ogunlesi and two other partners.
The selling GIP shareholders are taking 75pc of the $12.5bn fee in BlackRock shares and the rest in cash.
Larry Fink, the BlackRock chief executive, said more private capital would flow into public sector goods in future. He cited the UK as a “good example” of the Government selling assets to the private sector.
Mr Fink also said airports would also benefit from better supply chains and more investment.
“As more and more human beings grow into middle class lifestyles, the demand for air travel will grow dramatically and the need for high quality airports grows dramatically,” he said.
GIP has a significant office in the UK and is the world’s largest independent owner of infrastructure assets with $100bn of assets under management.
An Airbus in the Easyjet livery on the northern runway at Gatwick Airport
Credit: Peter Nicholls/Reuters
3:38PM
[20]
Chinese donor to Tories and British Museum scores £114m payday from his Mayfair hedge fund
A Chinese donor to the Conservative Party and the British Museum has scored a £114m payday from his Mayfair hedge fund. Michael Bow reports:
Yan Huo, a billionaire UK-based investor and top philanthropist, profited from the payout after earnings soared last year at Capula Investment Management.
Profits at the UK fund manager for distribution among its partners more than tripled from £98.5m to £360m for the year ending March 2023, a Companies House filing shows.
This led to a profit allocation to the partner with the largest entitlement, thought to controlling shareholder Mr Yan, of £113.7m.
Mr Yan is one of the country’s most prolific donors to Britain’s arts institutions and museums through his charity Huo Family Foundation UK.
He has donated to the Old Vic Theatre, the Tate Gallery, the National Theatre, the Natural History Museum and the London Symphony Orchestra, according to the charity’s accounts.
He was born in China to a family of physicists but moved to the US on a scholarship at Princeton before moving into finance.
“I was supposed to be a third-generation physicist. When I went to Wall Street I think they were a little disappointed,” he said in 2008.
Capula Investment Management practises a type of investment strategy known as macro trading, which makes bets on a variety of assets such as bonds, stocks, currencies and derivatives.
Handing over
That’s all from me for another week but you’ll keep receiving all the latest updates from Alex Singleton as you head towards the weekend.
Hopefully you have a restful few days until our next blog, and you don’t face the stresses of anyone who had been hoping to visit the the Volksfestplatz open-air venue in Bavaria, Nuremberg, during a farmers’ association protest:
Numerous tractors are parked at the Volksfestplatz open-air venue in Bavaria, Nuremberg, during a farmers’ association rally against the federal government’s austerity plans
Credit: Daniel Karmann / Avalon
3:18PM
[22]
US regulators to oversee Boeing manufacturing after mid-flight blowout
Boeing will have its manufacturing process come under greater scrutiny by US regulators following the mid-air blowout on an Alaska Airlines flight at 16,000 feet.
The Federal Aviation Administration will audit the production line of the Boeing 737-9 MAX, as well as the compliance of the plane maker’s suppliers with quality procedures.
FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker said:
It is time to re-examine the delegation of authority and assess any associated safety risks.
The grounding of the 737-9 and the multiple production-related issues identified in recent years require us to look at every option to reduce risk.
The FAA is exploring the use of an independent third party to oversee Boeing’s inspections and its quality system.
The fresh oversight comes a day after the FAA formally notified Boeing that it has launched an investigation into the company, having earlier grounded more than 170 of its planes following the blowout of a window in the air, which forced the plane into an emergency landing.
Real risk of strong UK inflation, warn economists
There is a “real” chance inflation could have ticked higher in the UK in December, economists have said, but it wil fall to below the Bank of England’s 2pc target by April.
The warning by Capital Economics comes after inflation increased in both the US and the eurozone at the end of last year.
Chief UK economist said the consultancy is “pretty confident” that CPI inflation will rise in January, “perhaps to 4.1pc” from its present level of 3.9pc.
However, he said:
The good news, though, is that we think this rebound in UK inflation will be more than reversed in the following few months, with inflation perhaps easing to 3.4pc in February and to 3pc in March.
What’s more, we think CPI inflation will fall below the 2pc target in April, perhaps to 1.7pc.
He added: “If we’re right, then in April, inflation in the UK will be lower than in the US and the euro-zone for the first time in two years.”
Wall Street rises at open
Shares in Citi bank were last up 3.3pc in early trading on Wall Street.
Thes main US stock indexes opened higher after a flood of earnings reports from its big banks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened higher by 40.63 points at 37,751.65 or 0.1pc.
The S&P 500 opened higher by 10.94 points, or 0.2pc, at 4,791.18, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 33.95 points at 15,004.13 points or 0.2pc at the opening bell.
Citi’s ‘underlying business showed resilience’
After Citi outlined the next step in its turnaround plan, Octavio Marenzi, chief executive of management consultancy Opimas, said:
Citigroup’s earnings looked awful with a big loss of $1.8bn, but the bank’s underlying business showed resilience.
The loss was largely due to exceptional items, as well as a big increase in reserves for credit losses.
Citi shares rise after announcing job cuts
Citi shares have climbed 3pc in premarket trading in New York after plans were set out to axe 20,000 roles over the medium term.
Chief executive Jane Fraser described 2024 as a “turning point year” for the lender.
She said: “We made substantial progress simplifying Citi and executing our strategy in 2023.”
Citi said it expects to book charges between $700m and $1bn tied to the severance and reorganisation.
Biden’s green agenda causing stubborn inflation, warns JP Morgan boss
Joe Biden’s green subsidies risk keeping inflation and interest rates high, according to the boss of JP Morgan.
Jamie Dimon said increased spending on the green economy “may lead inflation to be stickier and rates to be higher than markets expect”.
The US president’s $891bn Inflation Reduction Act, which was passed into law in 2022, provides $369bn in green subsidies and tax credits aimed at cutting carbon emissions in half by 2030.
Mr Dimon said the US economy continues to be “resilient” but said it had been “fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus”.
He said: “There is also an ongoing need for increased spending due to the green economy, the restructuring of global supply chains, higher military spending and rising healthcare costs.
“This may lead inflation to be stickier and rates to be higher than markets expect.”
JP Morgan chairman and chief executive Jamie Dimon said the US economy was ‘fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending’
Credit: AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin
1:21PM
[28]
Citi to cut 20,000 jobs
Citigroup said it plans to cut 20,000 jobs in the medium term as it reported a $1.8bn (£1.4bn) loss for the fourth quarter.
The bank is aiming to cut jobs as part of chief executive Jane Fraser’s efforts to cut bureaucracy, increase profits and boost a stock that has lagged peers.
The third-largest US lender by assets said its fourth quarter loss was also fueled by the bank stockpiling money to cover currency risks in Argentina and Russia.
Citi posted a loss of $1.16 per share for last three months of 2023, with its results eroded by $3.8bn in combined charges and reserves that Citigroup disclosed earlier this week.
Revenue slid to $17.4 billion in the quarter from a year earlier.
Citi will cut 20,000 jobs in the medium term
Credit: AP Photo/Mark Lennihan
12:53PM
[29]
Bank of America slumps after surprise drop in trading income
Bank of America’s profits fell short of analyst expectations as it was landed with numerous charges in the fourth quarter.
Shares in the Wall Street investment bank fell 5.4pc in premarket trading as it was also hit with a surprise drop in revenue from its fixed-income traders.
Net income fell 56pc to $3.14 billion, which was double the 28pc drop that analysts had predicted.
The decline in profit was due, in part, to a special assessment from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and a $1.6bn charge tied to the finance industry’s shift away from the London Interbank Offered Rate, known as the Libor. Expenses also soared.
Revenue from fixed income, currencies and commodities trading fell 5.8pc to $2.21bn in the fourth quarter, as clients grappled with a period of continued high interest rates and geopolitical tensions.
Credit: AP Photo/Michael Dwyer
12:41PM
[30]
Tesla factory halts production amid Red Sea turmoil
Tesla has been forced to halt car production at a key factory in Berlin as Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea disrupt its supply chain.[31]
Our senior technology reporter Matthew Field has the details:
The electric car company said it would suspend a large part of its car production for almost two weeks, from January 29 to February 11, amid a lack of vehicle parts.
Tesla’s factory in Germany relies heavily on parts from Asia, such as battery technology, but cargo ships are taking longer than usual to reach Europe as they avoid key shipping lanes through the Suez Canal.
Container ships have been forced to avoid the Red Sea after a series of missile launches and raids on vessels[32] by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
The Tesla gigafactory near Gruenheide, Germany, will temporarily cease production from January 29 until February 11 due to complications arising from the Houthi rebel attacks
Credit: Sean Gallup/Getty Images
12:29PM
[34]
Government war games impact of oil and gas price surge
The Treasury has reportedly war gamed the impact on the British economy of a $10 increase in the price of Brent crude as the UK and US carried out air strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.
Officials have also examined the impact of gas prices rising by 25pc, according to the BBC.
Oil has risen as much as 4.3pc to more than $80 after the military action amid concerns a wider conflict could disrupt supplies.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said:
Oil prices have climbed sharply following the attacks, with Brent crude now around 7pc higher since early December, before Houthi rebels began targeting ships in the Red Sea.
Reports coinciding with the UK/US military action suggest the British government is modelling scenarios which could see prices rise by $10 a barrel, if the Red Sea crisis continues, with gas prices at risk of going up by 25pc.
Well Fargo warns of interest hit ahead of Fed rate cuts
Wall Street giant Wells Fargo warned investors that its net interest income could fall this year should the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected.
Bosses warned that 2024 net interest income could be 7pc to 9pc lower than a year earlier.
It came as the bank increased its fourth-quarter profit as the lender benefited from cost cuts.
Chief executive Charlie Scharf said: “Our business performance remains sensitive to interest rates and the health of the US economy, but we are confident that the actions we are taking will drive stronger returns over the cycle.”
Banks benefited by charging borrowers more on interest as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates but with rate cuts expected this year, banks’ interest income could start to erode.
Conversely, lower rates could tempt more consumers to take out loans, boosting another key source of income for banks.
Revenue in the fourth quarter rose 2pc to $20.5bn (£16.1bn), while net income rose to $3.45bn, or 86 cents per share, for fourth quarter of last year.
Wells Fargo warned net interest income could fall this year
Credit: Angus Mordant/Bloomberg
12:11PM
[36]
JP Morgan reveals record profit after US banking crisis
JP Morgan Chase reported its best ever annual profit and forecast higher-than-expected interest income for 2024 even as quarterly profit fell due to a $3bn charge the bank took to replenish a government deposit insurance fund.
The largest US lender has benefited from its acquisition of failed First Republic Bank in May that brought in billions of dollars of loans and bolstered its net interest income (NII) – the difference between what banks make on loans and pay out on deposits.
The bank said it expects full-year NII of $90bn (£70.7bn), which was was higher than estimates of $86.2bn, according to LSEG data. In the quarter, NII rose 19pc to a record of $24.2bn.
Quarterly profit was $9.3bn, or $3.04 per share, for the final three months of 2023, the bank said. That compares with $11bn, or $3.57 per share, a year earlier.
JP Morgan and several major banks are required to pay a bulk of the $16bn earmarked for depositors at failed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank to replenish the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s deposit insurance fund (DIF).
JP Morgan shares have risen 2.5pc in premarket trading in New York.
JP Morgan missed analyst expectations for its investment banking revenues
Credit: REUTERS/Mike Segar
11:46AM
[37]
Tanker owner Torm halts Red Sea shipping
Fuel tanker owner Torm has said it will halt all shipping through the Red Sea following the UK and US airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.
The Danish company, which owns a fleet of about 80 ships, said it would suspend transit until further notice.
Trump is ‘clear threat’ to Europe, says Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde[39] has warned that Donald Trump[40] is “clearly a threat” to Europe, as the head of the European Central Bank raised concerns about a fresh trade war if he is re-elected US president.
Our economics editor Szu Ping Chan has the latest:
In a series of critical comments for a central banker, Ms Lagarde told French television that the Republican frontrunner in the presidential race was likely to renew tensions between the two economic blocs.
“If we should learn lessons from history, from the way he led the first four years of his mandate, it is clearly a threat,” she said.
“It’s sufficient to look at the trade tariffs, the commitment to Nato, the fight against climate change. In just these three areas, in the past, US interests were not aligned with European interests.”
Read how she played down concerns that escalating tensions[41] in the Red Sea will lead to a fresh wave of inflation.
There are concerns that should Donald Trump win the US presidency, Europe will be isolated in supporting Ukraine
Credit: Leon Neal/Getty Images
11:16AM
[42]
Pound steady as economy bounces back
The pound was little changed and not far off its highest level in five months after data showed the economy grew more than expected in November.
The pound was last down 0.1pc at $1.27, close to the $1.2825 hit at the end of December, which was the highest since August. Sterling has risen around 0.3[c this year after climbing more than 5pc in 2023.
Britain’s economy grew 0.3pc in November, more than the 0.2pc expected by economists, after shrinking 0.3pc in October.
Sterling was also flat against the euro, with the euro zone’s currency trading at just under 86p.
The euro has slipped 0.8pc so far this year against the pound.
Brent crude oil hits $80 after UK and US airstrikes
Oil surged above $80 a barrel after the airstrikes in Yemen provoked fears of an extended conflict in the Middle East that could disrupt global supplies.
Brent crude has risen 3.5pc today to tip above $80 a barrel, while US-produced West Texas Intermediate has climbed 3.6pc to more than $74.
The commodity, which was worth less than $77 at one point on Thursday, is on track for its largest daily gain in three months after targeted UK and US strikes on Yemen added to fears of further escalation in the Middle East conflict.
The Houthis have vowed to retaliate, with the group’s military spokesman saying the attacks would not go “without punishment” after officials vowed the Western coalition would “pay the price”.
Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said: “The fear in the oil market is that the region is on an unpredictable escalating path, where at some point down the road supply of oil will indeed in the end be lost.”
The conflict has also sent the price of gold as much as 1.6pc higher today as the military action enhanced the bullion’s appeal as a safe-haven.
The FTSE 100, which is heavily weighted toward mining and energy stocks, has risen as much as 1pc as it matches the moves higher in oil and gold.
China to cut rates after third month of deflation, say economists
China will cut interest rates this month as it tries to avoid a deflationary spiral, economists have predicted.
Official figures today showed that China’s consumer prices declined for a third month in December, dropping by 0.3pc from a year earlier, in their longest streak of declines since 2009.
Meanwhile factory-gate prices extended their prolonged slide, falling by 2.7pc in a decline that has lasted for more than a year because of lower commodity prices and weak demand at home and abroad.
China’s blue-chip CSI300 Index closed down 0.4pc, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.2pc. Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng Index was down 0.4pc.
Ken Cheung Kin Tai, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank, said: “The lingering deflationary pressure justifies the expectation of an imminent rate cut, which is widely expected to materialise in the one-year medium-term policy facility yield decision next Monday.”
Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, said: “China needs to act boldly to break the deflationary cycle. It will fall into a negative spiral otherwise.”
China, inflation (December 2023):
Consumer Price Index (CPI): -0.3% YoY (survey: -0.4%, prior: -0.5%).
Producer Price Index (PPI): -2.7% YoY (survey: -2.6%, prior: -3.0%). #ausecon #auspol @CommSec pic.twitter.com/XQcz6zPH8k[45][46][47][48]
— CommSec (@CommSec) January 12, 2024[49]
10:19AM
[50]
Wholesale gas prices rise amid British airstrikes in Yemen
Gas prices have risen Britain and the United States launched airstrikes against their military bases in Yemen.
Europe’s benchmark contract rose as much as 3.2pc towards €32 per megawatt hour while the UK equivalent rose 2.5pc to more than 78p per therm.
It comes after the boss of shipping giant Maersk warned that issues through the vital Red Sea trade route could last for months.
Uranium miner warns it risks missing production targets
The world’s largest uranium miner has warned it is likely to miss production targets over the next two years, sending the price of the nuclear fuel back toward 16-year highs.
London-listed Kazatomprom, which is controlled by Kazakhstan’s government via its sovereign wealth fund, blamed the slowdown in excavation on a shortage sulphuric acid, a critical operating material, as well as delays in completing construction works.
It comes as hedge funds stockpile barrels of raw uranium[52] as the raw metal’s price surges to 16-year highs.
As many as 50 funds are believed to have bought and stored uranium concentrate, known as “yellowcake”, at a facility run by US processing firm ConverDyn alone, as speculators bet that prices are set to spike.
One prominent fund said to be amassing yellowcake is Anchorage Capital Group, the New York firm that started piling into the metal after selling MGM Studios, which owns the film rights to the James Bond franchise, to Amazon.
Shares in uranium miners jumped globally this week after the US said it is soliciting bids to boost domestic production of a nuclear fuel known as high-assay low-enriched uranium.
Kazatomprom said that it is committed to fulfilling its contractual obligations to existing customers throughout 2024.
Uranium, known as yellowcake, sits in the Uvanas processing facility near the East Mynkuduk uranium deposit in Kyzemshek, Kazakhstan
Credit: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg News
9:33AM
[53]
Shell petrol stations are ‘Britain’s most expensive’
Shell fuel stations are typically the most expensive in the UK, new figures show.
The British oil and gas company’s branded UK forecourts charged an average of 142.6p per litre for petrol and 151.2p per litre for diesel on Thursday, according to analysis by motoring research charity the RAC Foundation.
That is more than all other major retailers.
Supermarket-branded fuel remains the cheapest despite savings compared with that sold by other companies narrowing in recent years.
Morrisons was found to have the lowest price for fuel, with its forecourts charging an average of 136.9p per litre for petrol and 145.5p per litre for diesel.
The figures suggest filling a 55-litre family petrol car is typically £3.14 cheaper at Morrisons compared with Shell.
Shell petrol garages are the most expensive in Britain, according to the RAC
Credit: PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images
9:15AM
[54]
French inflation remains three times 2021 levels
French inflation slowed slightly on average last year as a sharp fall in energy prices offset the soaring cost of food, official data showed.
Consumer prices rose by 4.9pc in 2023, down from 5.2pc the previous year, according to statistics agency INSEE.
But it remained much higher than in 2021, when it reached 1.6pc. French inflation reached 0.5pc in 2020.
Inflation accelerated across the world following the pandemic and jumped higher after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy and food prices soaring in 2022.
Energy prices slowed sharply in France last year “due to the partial downturn in petroleum product prices”, rising by 5.6pc after reaching 23.1pc in 2022, INSEE said.
But food prices accelerated to 11.8pc in 2023 after rising by 6.8pc the year before.
Vistry increases profit forecast after switch to affordable homes
Housebuilder Vistry said it expects profits to come in £8m higher than its previous forecast months after it said it would switch its entire focus onto affordable homes.
The developer, formerly known as Bovis Homes, said it expects pre-tax profits to hit £418m, higher than previous guidance of £410m.
It sold 16,124 homes during the year, which was down 5.4pc but well ahead of rivals such as Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey, which reported declines of a third and around a quarter this week.
The company’s share price was up 2.5pc in early trading.
Chief executive Greg Fitzgerald said:
Looking ahead, working with our highly valued partners we are committed to increasing the delivery of much needed homes across the country, and in the fourth quarter have continued to secure exciting new developments that reflect our high return, asset-light partnerships model.
Our forward sales of £4.5bn is up 12.4pc on prior year and positions us well to deliver a step-up in total completions in FY24 and make progress towards our medium-term targets and the return of £1bn of capital to shareholders.
FTSE 100 rises as Yemen strikes send gold and oil higher
UK stocks rose amid a broad rally as investors cheered as the British economy rebounded in November.
The blue-chip FTSE 100 was up 0.8pc and the midcap FTSE 250 index gained 1pc, although both the indexes were set to book losses for the second consecutive week.
Precious metal miners were the top gainers with a 2.5pc jump, boosted by higher gold prices as global strikes on Yemen added to fears of further escalation in the Middle East conflict, enhancing the bullion’s safe-haven appeal.
The strikes also lifted the price of oil higher by 2.2pc, sending energy stocks 1pc higher.
Burberry shares remain at the bottom of the FTSE 100, although their drop has fallen back to 5.9pc after the British luxury fashion brand warned its full-year results would fall below its previous guidance.
The luxury retailer dragged the personal goods sector down to an 11-year low.
Burberry shares plunge as wealthy shoppers cut back
Burberry shares plunged to the bottom of the FTSE 100 after the fashion giant said a slowdown in demand for its luxury goods worsened in December as wealthy shoppers tightened their belts.
The London-based fashion house saw its share price sink as much as 14.6pc in early trading after it slashed its profit guidance for the year as a result.
It said trading has been affected by a continued “slowdown in luxury demand” after rises in the cost of living and increases to interest rates globally.
Jonathan Akeroyd, chief executive officer of the firm, said it saw a “further deceleration in our key December trading period” which will weigh on its profitability.
Burberry had already seen its shares slump following its previous update in November, when it warned sales growth was lagging behind targets due to pressure in the luxury market.
Technical recession ‘still potentially on the cards,’ warns KPMG
As November’s GDP growth cancelled out the declines suffered in October, KPMG UK chief economist Yael Selfin said:
New year but old problems for the UK economy.
The economic outlook currently remains gloomy, with a technical recession still potentially on the cards in the second half of 2023, especially given the expected impact from the industrial action in December.
Nonetheless, even if the economy manages to avoid a recession, it is expected to remain in stagnation territory.
Manufacturing recovered somewhat after it was hit by the impact of high interest rates and weakening global economic activity, while construction is experiencing difficulties from a slowdown in housebuilding.
The hope is that the outlook ahead will brighten as mortgage rates continue to fall, improving affordability dynamics.
The second half of the year could see fortunes changing for the UK economy, with inflation expected to continue to normalise.
This could raise the prospect of earlier interest rate cuts, with the Bank of England likely to be wary about the risk of overtightening given the weak economic backdrop.
We’re more confidence about next six months, say economists
The outlook for growth in the next six months is more positive despite the risk of Britain falling into a technical recession, according to economists.
Barret Kupelian, chief economist at PwC, said:
The UK economy grew by around 0.3pc on a monthly basis during November and managed to shrug off fears about a downturn, at least for now.
A technical recession could still be on the cards if UK output fails to grow by at least 0.2pc next month, assuming no further revisions on the economic data.
We are, however, more positive about the six-month economic outlook.
The US Federal Reserve’s pivot in December followed by a series of more positive inflation data in the UK has already led to lower market interest rates.
We have already seen the impact of this in real wages growing and mortgage rates dropping, all of which are expected to alleviate the squeeze on households at a much faster pace than originally expected.
From a policy perspective, sustainable lower market interest rates also mean that the government could end up with sizable fiscal headroom ahead of the Budget in March which it could opt to spend in a bid to encourage economic activity.
FTSE 100 open higher as economy grows
The FTSE 100 opened higher after the official figures showed the economy returned to growth in November.
The energy-heavy index jumped 0.7pc higher to 7,631.05 as oil and gas stocks were boosted by airstrikes in Yemen, which lifted the price of crude.
The domestically-focused FTSE 250 has gained 0.9pc to 19,272.60.
Oil lurches higher as UK and US launch airstrikes on Yemen
Oil prices jumped as Britain and the US launched airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen in response to the attacks on ships in the Red Sea that have disrupted global trade.
Brent crude has risen by 2.2pc in early trading to more than $79 a barrel, while US-produced West Texas Intermediate has risen 2.3pc towards $74.
Rishi Sunak said British forces participated in joint attacks with the US that are “targeted strikes against military facilities” and he stressed that the action taken was “limited, necessary and proportionate… in self-defence”.
US President Joe Biden said US military forces, backed by the UK and supported by Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, successfully conducted strikes against a number of targets in Yemen.
The Houthis had launched their largest assault to date on shipping in the Red Sea earlier this week, despite the presence of a US-led naval force.
Economy is not going anywhere, warns IoD
The UK economy merely clawed back lost ground with its larger than expected growth in November, business leaders have said, warning that Britain is still at risk of technical recession.
Dr Roger Barker, director of policy at the Institute of Directors, said:
Although monthly GDP figures can be volatile, it was reassuring to see that GDP grew in November.
However, over a longer time horizon, the economy is not going anywhere.
November’s increase merely clawed back the ground lost in October. We will still need to wait for December’s GDP figure to find out if the UK avoided a technical recession in 2023.
Services output drove the uptick in November, with the retail trade doing particularly well.
This was consistent with the picture presented by the latest retail sales figures and recent announcements from major retailers. Black Friday may have helped, along with a lull in the intensity of industrial action during that month.
On the downside, adverse weather conditions – particularly strong wind and rain – led to delay across many building projects. This exerted a drag on output in the construction sector.
Burberry issues profit warning after weak Christmas
Away from the economic data for a moment, Burberry has warned that its annual results will be below previous guidance.
The British luxury fashion brand blamed a further slowdown in demand that hit sales in the key December trading period.
The group now expects full-year adjusted operating profit in a range between £410m and £460m.
Retail revenue in the last three months of 2023 was down 7pc at £706m while comparable store sales fell 4pc.
Sales were up 3pc in the Asia Pacific region but down 5pc in Europe and down 15pc in the Americas.
Burberry has issued a profit warning after weak December sales
Credit: Burberry/Tyrone Lebon
7:31AM
[64]
‘Not much momentum’ for economy moving into 2024, say investors
Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at asset manager Premier Miton, said:
The UK economy returned to growth in November, although this may not prevent the fourth quarter of 2023 being another one of contraction.
Whether the economy slides into a mild recession or not is unlikely to matter too much, but there is not much momentum moving into 2024.
However, given the inflation and interest rate pressures, this is a creditable performance and with rate cuts in the pipeline and an election looming, there is some stimulus on the way.
Pound edges higher as UK economy grows
The pound has edged up after official figures showed the UK economy expanded in November.
Sterling has risen 0.1pc against the dollar to move in the direction of $1.28, having gained 0.3pc on Thursday.
Against the euro, the pound is up 0.1pc, making a euro worth less than 86p.
‘All to play for’ in battle to avoid recession
The 0.3pc growth in November is the opposite of the 0.3pc contraction suffered in October, meaning Britain is still teetering on the brink of a recession if next month’s data shows the economy shrank in December.
This graph from Panmure Gordon chief economist Simon French shows the rollercoaster that has been UK GDP over the last two years:
The random walk that is UK monthly GDP continues as it stumbles from lamppost to lamppost. +0.3% in November, after a 0.3 fall in October. All to play for regarding output growth in Q4 given decent signs of activity in retail, hospitality & manufacturing sector. pic.twitter.com/QP4DxWR3Z0[67]
— Simon French (@shjfrench) January 12, 2024[68]
Whilst I am no fan of monthly data – & think @ONS should scrap publication – it seems to suggest early Q4 soft patch by UK consumers/manufacturers turned up later in the quarter, with recent plc reporting seeming to corroborate this. Decent chance recession (again) gets avoided https://t.co/MTch42rhdh[69][70]
— Simon French (@shjfrench) January 12, 2024[71]
7:16AM
[72]
UK economy experiencing ‘on-off growth’
Independent economist Julian Jessop cheered the return to growth in the UK economy, but lamented that it simply erased the 0.3pc contraction suffered in October:
💥 The UK economy’s on-off growth is on again: monthly #GDP[73] rose 0.3% in November. though this simply reversed October’s 0.3% fall.
On the 3m on 3m comparison (Sep-Nov vs Jun-Aug), GDP was down 0.2%. ☹️ pic.twitter.com/yKC1oPXW2R[74]
— Julian Jessop (@julianHjessop) January 12, 2024[75]
7:12AM
[76]
Hunt: Tax cuts put us in a strong position for growth
After the release of the GDP figures, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said:
While growth in November is welcome news, it will be slower as we bring inflation back to its 2pc target.
But we have seen that advanced economies with lower taxes have grown more rapidly, so our tax cuts for businesses and workers put the UK in a strong position for growth into the future.
Retail, car leasing and computer games companies lead UK bounce back
After the UK economy grew by more than expected in November, ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said:
The economy contracted a little over the three months to November, with widespread falls across manufacturing industries, which were partially offset by increases in public services, which saw less impact from strike action.
GDP bounced back in the month to November, however, led by services with retail, car leasing and computer games companies all having a buoyant month.
The longer term picture remains one of an economy that has shown little growth over the last year.
Economy bounces back in boost for Sunak
Britain’s economy grew by more than expected in November, official figures show, delivering a boost for Rishi Sunak as he aims to show Britain avoided a recession at the end of last year.
Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.3pc during the month, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Economists had expected the economy to grow by 0.2pc.
The uplift was driven by the services sector, which rose by 0.4pc during the month, and was the biggest contributor to economic growth.
The UK economy had experienced a big decline in economic output in October, with the economy contracting by 0.3pc, more than reversing the 0.2pc rise in September.
The weak figures for the fourth quarter come after the economy had shrank by 0.1pc in the three months to September. Two consecutive quarters of contraction are considered the definition of a recession.
The latest growth comes as the Prime Minister aims to meet one of his five key pledges to grow the economy as he tries to get on the front foot ahead of a general election expected in the second half of this year.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “While growth in November is welcome news, it will be slower as we bring inflation back to its 2pc target.
“But we have seen that advanced economies with lower taxes have grown more rapidly, so our tax cuts for businesses and workers put the UK in a strong position for growth into the future.”
GDP fell 0.2% in the three months to November 2023.
Services was flat (0.0%), while production was down 1.5% and construction down 0.6%
➡️ https://t.co/WFpvckBAE7 pic.twitter.com/pZZvrHf5x7[79][80]
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 12, 2024[81]
7:03AM
[82]
Good morning
Thanks for joining me. Britain’s economy grew in November, the latest data from the Office for National Statistics show.
Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.3pc in a boost to Rishi Sunak’s pledge to grow Britain’s economy as he gears up for a general election later this year.
5 things to start your day
1) Global trade in the cross hairs as Red Sea crisis rages[83] | Houthi attacks on commercial shipping are already impacting supply chains
2) Dyson criticises ‘perverse’ ruling after losing £150m battle with Brussels[84] | British company loses damages claim in decade-long dispute over energy labels
3) China built more solar panels in 2023 than entire world in 2022[85] | Beijing drives breakneck expansion in bid to hit peak CO2 emissions by 2030
4) Ambrose Evans Pritchard: China’s relentless quest for growth is a toxic feedback loop of its own making[86] | Vast overinvestment is self-destructive – and intolerable for the global economy
5) Ben Marlow: Vanity projects risk tripping up Marks & Spencer after remarkable resurgence[87] | Talk of empire building is enough to give investors sleepless nightsWhat happened overnight
Oil prices surged after US and UK forces launched strikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen following attacks on ships in the Red Sea, fuelling worries about a wider conflict in the crude-rich region.
Brent futures jumped 2pc to $79 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 2.1pc to $73.55.
Tokyo stocks ended higher, extending gains from the previous day’s session when the benchmark Nikkei index closed above 35,000 for the first time since 1990.
The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.5pc, or 527.25 points, at 35,577.11, while the broader Topix index added 0.5pc, or 11.36 points, to 2,494.23.
China’s blue chips and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index were mostly flat.
In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 top American companies finished up less than 0.1 percent at 37,711.02. The broad-based S&P 500 fell 0.1px to 4,780.24, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite index was unchanged at 14,970.19.
Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers noted the importance of new inflation figures for the US, which were higher than expected. “The CPI was not a good number,” he said. But it “wasn’t bad enough to give us a real reason for a sell-off either. And that’s why we were sort of muddling around at slightly lower levels.”
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds declined yesterday by five basis points to 3.98pc.
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