Will Freeport Stock Rise Ahead Of Earnings?

CHONGQING, CHINA - JULY 19: In this photo illustration, a smartphone displays the logo of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX), one of the world's largest producers of copper, gold, and molybdenum, in front of a screen showing the company's latest stock market chart on July 19, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)Getty Images

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX)[1] is scheduled to announce its earnings on Tuesday, October 28, 2025. We anticipate Freeport-McMoRan Inc. will report quarterly revenues of approximately £8.3 billion, bolstered by increased realized copper and gold prices in addition to stable production volumes from its principal mining operations in North and South America, along with Indonesia. Nevertheless, profit margins may experience slight pressure due to escalating energy, labor, and input expenses, alongside persistent inflation in mining consumables and maintenance costs.

While enhanced copper and gold prices are expected to strengthen operating cash flow, high sustaining capital demands and ongoing investment in growth projects could restrict near-term profitability. A sustained focus on cost management and productivity enhancements will be vital to mitigate inflation-related challenges. In the medium term, expansion initiatives at Grasberg and new leach projects in the Americas, along with strong copper demand driven by the energy transition, create a favorable environment for earnings growth and cash generation in the upcoming quarters.

The firm currently boasts a market capitalization of £59 Bil. In the past twelve months, it recorded £26 Bil in revenue and was operationally profitable with £6.9 Bil in operating profits and net income of £1.9 Bil. Although much hinges on how the results compare to consensus and expectations, knowing historical trends may enhance your likelihood of success if you are a trader focused on events.

Photo by disign on Pixabay[2][3]

There are two approaches to do this: either grasp the historical probabilities and position yourself ahead of the earnings announcement, or analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings and adjust your positioning accordingly after the earnings are disclosed. That being said, if you're looking for potential gains with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio[4] offers an alternative - having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns surpassing 105% since its inception.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks[5]

Freeport-McMoRan's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• Over the last five years, there have been 19 recorded earnings data points, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In conclusion, positive 1D returns were recorded roughly 47% of the time.
• Significantly, this percentage rises to 55% if we analyze data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
• The median of the 9 positive returns is 3.0%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -2.6%.

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is compiled along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively lower-risk strategy (although not effective if the correlation is weak) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns subsequent to earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade.

For instance, if 1D and 5D display the strongest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data derived from a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) timeframe. It is important to note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the followed 5D returns.

Discover more about the Trefis RV strategy[6] that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three indices: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), resulting in impressive returns for investors.

Moreover, if you are seeking growth with a steadier experience than an individual stock like Freeport-McMoRan, contemplate the High Quality portfolio[7], which has surpassed the S&P and achieved greater than 105% returns post inception.

References

1. ^ Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) (www.trefis.com)
2. ^ disign (pixabay.com)
3. ^ Pixabay (pixabay.com)
4. ^ High Quality portfolio (www.trefis.com)
5. ^ See earnings reaction history of all stocks (www.trefis.com)
6. ^ Trefis RV strategy (www.trefis.com)
7. ^ High Quality portfolio (www.trefis.com)