France: Road transport prices follow diesel inflation
BAROMETER. Road freight transport prices in France rose by 1.3% in July, driven by rising diesel prices. But beware, the volumes to be transported are decreasing and some signals seem to show a return to stagflation.
In July 2025, private sector activity in France contracted for the 11th consecutive month, according to the S&P Global Flash PMI index[1], marking a deterioration in demand at the start of the third quarter.
The decline, although slight, reflects increased fragility in the eurozone's second-largest economy, with optimism waning among businesses worried about shrinking budgets, weak sales prospects and political uncertainty. INSEE anticipates a significant slowdown in French growth in 2025 (+0.6% after +1.1% in 2024), in a context of budgetary restrictions and global economic uncertainties. Conversely, the Eurozone is showing a more marked recovery, with a PMI index of 50.9 in July (compared to 50.6 in June), its strongest growth since August 2024.
This improvement is driven by services, which recorded their best performance since January, while industry remains sluggish, although the recession appears to be easing. In an interview with the newspaper Les Echos Investir, Cyrus de la Rubia, economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, underlines that this dynamic is driven by Germany and most of the countries in the zone, with the exception of France, whose weakness weighs on the overall results. The sustainable recovery of the European manufacturing sector would therefore depend on a rebound in French industry, which has been hampered by political uncertainty for more than a year and by the tensions surrounding France's 2026 budget.
The contrast is clear: while Germany is expected to experience slight growth in July, France is heading towards a contraction. The divergence between the two countries illustrates the specific challenges of the French economy, where weakening demand and political tensions are hampering recovery, unlike a generally improving eurozone. 
Content source: Insee
Transport companies in France are pessimistic. The business climate has worsened significantly, falling below its long-term average. "In particular, the prospective balances on activity, demand and workforce are falling sharply and deviating from their respective averages," specifies the monthly INSEE survey on the business climate in services.
A fairly stable level of activity in road transport
Source: Upply Freight Index[2] - Road France Road transport prices in France increased in July, showing a clear increase of 1.3% over one month, which contrasts with the gloomy economic situation.
This third consecutive monthly increase in road transport prices once again appears to be due to changes in diesel prices (...)
References
- ^ the S&P Global Flash PMI index (www.pmi.spglobal.com)
- ^ Upply Freight Index (www.upply.com)