European road freight: weak demand weighs on spot rates
Road freight transport prices in Europe rose slightly on the contract market in the second quarter of 2025. But they retreated on the spot market, due to weak demand.
The European road freight transport market is facing contrasting demand dynamics, combined with an uncertain global economic climate. Road trade between major European economies (Germany, France, Poland, Italy, and Spain) has shown recovery since the low of December 2024.
However, in annual comparison, trade in terms of tonnage between these economies is lower in 2025 than in 2024.
A fragile balance
This sluggish demand is reflected in the evolution of road freight rates on the spot market. In the second quarter of 2025, the Upply spot index for road freight rates decreased by 2.2 points quarter-on-quarter to 132.2 points, and the decline is 2 points year-on-year. On the other hand, the slight recovery in certain sectors, and in particular in European manufacturing, has helped to support contractual rates. The index for Q2 2025 reached 132.2 points, 1.2 points higher than in the first quarter of 2025 and 0.7 points higher than in the second quarter of 2024.
"The convergence of spot and contractual rates is the reflection of the fragile balance in the European road freight market. Despite the first signs of recovery, demand remains moderate and pressure on the spot market is therefore low. At the same time, the contract market saw a slight increase in the second quarter, but if we look back at the last two years, we see that the index has remained relatively stable," says Thomas Larrieu, CEO of Upply.
Content source : Upply - NB : Our price estimates are based on actual transactions. The index may therefore be subject to revisions as new data are incorporated into the Upply database.
The increase in contractual rates is also fueled by the impact of cost increases. Although diesel prices fell by 6.4% in the second quarter, other cost items (insurance, tolls, etc.) are continuing to increase. This impact on prices is, however, only partial. "Given the weak demand, carriers are struggling to pass on all of the increases in their operating costs. This is weighing on investment capacity, which could lead to difficulties in accessing capacity when a more pronounced recovery occurs," warns Thomas Larrieu.
Downward pressure in the second half of the year
Barring a major external event, road transport prices are not expected to experience significant volatility in the second half of 2025. In the short term, spot road freight rates are expected to continue to experience downward pressure, due to uncertainty linked to the deterioration of the economic environment.
According to data from the European Commission, the economic climate in the retail sector has deteriorated, as has the climate in the industrial sector. Companies are reluctant to place orders, which also reduces the likelihood of upward pressure on contract prices.
Where to learn more
> See the webinar[1] (in English)
> Download the Upply / Transport Intelligence report on European road freight rates in the second quarter of 2025
References
- ^ the webinar (www.youtube.com)