What To Expect From Freeport-McMoRan Stock’s Q2?

CHONGQING, CHINA - APRIL 20: In this photo illustration, the Freeport-McMoRan logo is displayed on a ... More smartphone screen, with the company's blue and black branding visible in the background, on April 20, 2025, in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)

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Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Wednesday, July 23, 2025. The consensus earnings are estimated to be approximately £0.44 per share, and revenues are projected to rise by nearly 5% compared to the same quarter last year.

This growth is anticipated to be fueled by higher copper prices and consistent production, especially from its Grasberg mine. Additionally, there could be extra advantages if U.S. tariffs on imported copper are implemented. Nonetheless, challenges persist due to copper price fluctuations and operational challenges in Indonesia.

Overall, forecasts indicate moderate earnings growth and the possibility for upside if commodity prices and policy developments align. On a different note, can oil foster peace? See - Trump's Russia Math, Simplified.[1][2]

The company currently has a market capitalization of £65 billion. Over the past twelve months, it generated revenues of £25 billion and achieved operational profitability with £6.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of £1.8 billion. Therefore, if you are looking for upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio[3] offers an alternative - having outperformed the S&P 500 and produced returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks[4]

Freeport-McMoRan's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In total, positive 1D returns occurred about 53% of the time.
• Interestingly, this percentage rises to 67% when considering data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• The median of the 10 positive returns is 3.3%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -3.0%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

FCX 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

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Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively lower-risk approach (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair with the strongest correlation, and carry out the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader could position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive.

Here is some correlation data based on the 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history.

Note that "correlation 1D_5D" refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

FCX Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

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Learn more about Trefis RV strategy[5] that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), producing strong returns for investors.

Additionally, if you are looking for upside with a smoother experience than an individual stock like Freeport-McMoRan, consider the High Quality portfolio[6], which has outperformed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since inception.

References

1. ^ Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) (www.trefis.com)
2. ^ Trump's Russia Math, Simplified. (www.forbes.com)
3. ^ High Quality portfolio (www.trefis.com)
4. ^ See earnings reaction history of all stocks (www.trefis.com)
5. ^ Trefis RV strategy (www.trefis.com)
6. ^ High Quality portfolio (www.trefis.com)