Rail prospects beginning to look up

South Africa's freight landscape is slowly shifting, with rail beginning to show modest signs of recovery while road freight is continuing to decline, according to independent economist Elize Kruger. This comes as the volume of freight transported on South Africa's roads has declined slightly since peaking near 90% of total freight payload in November 2022, and now accounting for approximately 82.1%. Kruger said after modest growth of 1.5% in 2023, the road freight sector had seen a sharp contraction in 2024, with an 8.3% drop in payload volumes.

Rail, meanwhile, has shown tentative signs of recovery. From a low point in November 2023, when only 10.9% of freight was moved by rail, volumes have improved. In March this year, rail's share had risen to 17.9%, compared to a full-year average of 16.9% in 2024 and 15.6% in 2023.

"While these figures are still well below the long-term average of 25.9% recorded between 2008 and 2017 - before the significant decline in rail performance - the upward trend is encouraging," said Kruger.

Speaking at a recent Transport Forum, she said the country's current rail infrastructure challenges stemmed from long-standing underinvestment. "What we are struggling with today in terms of things like rail infrastructure actually dates back to when there was no capex invested in the rail infrastructure."

• Read the rest of this article in our latest Freight Features edition out on Friday, 27 June.