Positive ONS figures released as we brace for tariff impact
Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures released last Friday (11 April) morning make surprising reading. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.5 percent in February against an expected 0.1 percent giving economists some cause for cautious optimism. The news boosted the Pound which rose 0.4% against the US Dollar within an hour of the announcement which reports the estimated value of goods and services produced in the UK during that period.
Growth in production (1.5%) and construction (0.4%) have played key parts in the economic bounce albeit set against a flat January, and will have been good for operators in our industry supporting those sectors. But what will it look like in the months ahead? Optimism is tempered by heightened uncertainty driven by President Trump's 'Liberation Day' measures announced last week.
The ten percent tariff imposed on UK goods imported into the US will bite soon enough - though to what extent remains to be seen. Our government has an unenviable task to strike a winning deal for the UK in trade talks with their US counterparts amid the global chaos. Business leaders will hope that our enduring trans-Atlantic 'special relationship' will find the UK some favour ahead of negotiations despite holding the weaker hand.
Industry will understand the tightrope act our ministers walk but will nonetheless expect that business will be supported to drive the growth our economy needs. The Chancellor won't need to be reminded that there's only a few short months to chart a path through to a difficult Autumn Budget as the ramifications of growing trade volatility will have started playing out - regardless of any deal struck. The Government's message meanwhile will be that we all have to get on with the business as usual to prime and future-proof our economy to drive that growth and I believe that's the right sentiment.
There's a job to do. We're very clear in our commitment to support the Government's aspirations and have set out a clear vision of what's needed to support haulage, coach and van operators to help achieve them. Satisfying ambitious housebuilding targets will rely on a thriving construction industry - supported by a similarly primed haulage and logistics sector to meet the goals.
Key infrastructure projects to increase road capacity and chip away at economy-stymieing congestion will improve connectivity and reduce journey times - facilitated of course by logistics. This in turn will pave the way for coaches to be an even more attractive proposition to support domestic tourism and leisure, moving people en masse efficiently to popular destinations - a key focus in our upcoming National Coach Week (12-18 May). And local road improvement programmes will support the van sector to sate consumers amid the increasing ubiquity of home delivery consumption.
Underpinning all this must be an uplift in lorry drivers into our sector. We need 40,000 new drivers every year for the next five years to meet national demand - a huge challenge of course. But's it's doable - it has to be.
That workforce target is very much a microcosm - a significant one - of the bigger picture at hand for our government bracing itself to steer the country through a particularly detonative geopolitical minefield.
They will know that pragmatism, trust and collaboration will be critical.
And as ever so do we.