Ukraine-Poland relations sour over Black Sea grain crisis, as Russia …
Cracks are emerging between Ukraine and its allies in Europe following the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal[1], with Kyiv and Warsaw trading barbs in the diplomatic crisis.
It has opened an opportunity for Russia to try to intensify divisions between Ukraine and eastern European governments.
“It is the strategy of Russia to look for issues that drive a wedge between eastern European states which are supportive of Ukraine,” said Aleks Szczerbiak, Professor of Politics at the University of Sussex.
Grain has become one of those issues. “There is a realisation that while broadly supporting Ukraine on pretty much everything, there are obviously areas where the interests of Poland[2] and other eastern European countries differ from those of Ukraine,” Professor Szczerbiak told i.
A worker oversees the unloading of Ukrainian cereals from a barge in the Black Sea port of Constanta, Romania (Photo: Vadim Ghirda/AP)
After Russia pulled out of the Black Sea grain initiative[3], a deal brokered a year ago that ensured safe passage of corn, wheat, barley and other agricultural products from Ukrainian ports to global markets, Kyiv has been left searching for alternative routes to export grain[4].
While the deal had successfully stabilised global food prices in the aftermath of the Russia invasion of Ukraine, for some of Kyiv’s allies it had tested the limits of solidarity.
Five European countries – Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Hungary – called on the EU on Wednesday to extend a ban on grain imports from Ukraine until at least the end of the year.
After fierce protests by farmers, the countries – all of which border Ukraine with the exception of Bulgaria – passed bans in April without EU approval, threatening European unity in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine[5].
The EU later struck a deal allowing the countries to temporarily prohibit some agricultural products from Ukraine and provide farmers more aid.
Poland, widely considered Ukraine’s strongest ally, has been particularly vocal about keeping the ban, leading to Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal condemning it on Thursday as an “unfriendly and populist move”.
Russia has disrupted the grain initiative, destroying the infrastructure of our Black Sea ports and once again provoking a global food crisis.During this critical time, Poland intends to continue blocking the export of UA grain to the EU. This is an unfriendly and populist move…
— Denys Shmyhal (@Denys_Shmyhal) July 20, 2023[6]Poland’s deputy foreign minister Pawel Jablonski retorted that Mr Shymal’s criticism was “not a very sensible remark”[7].
Poland closed its border to imports of Ukrainian grain in April after protests from farmers who said their supplies had decreased in value because of the added competition. The transit of Ukrainian grain through so-called “solidarity lanes”[8] led to much of the product ending up on local markets.
The situation reached boiling point when the former Polish agriculture minister, Henryk Kowalczyk, and the country’s EU Commissioner for Agriculture, Janusz Wojciechowski, were pelted with eggs[9] at an event in March by angry farmers shouting “traitor”. Mr Kowalczyk resigned from his post days later.
His successor, Robert Telus, said this week that Warsaw was willing to improve transit through Poland but that the EU needed to help with infrastructure. He said the harvest in Poland had only just begun and extra transit would not happen immediately.
Senior European officials said the EU was seeking to transport more Ukrainian grain via road and rail[10], with some suggesting through Romania and Poland.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, however, said on Wednesday that Poland will retain its ban on Ukrainian grain exports on 15 September, even if the EU does not agree to the extension.
Professor Szczerbiak said an upcoming election in Poland, possibly in October, could partly explain Mr Morawiecki’s decision, as he looks to mobilise his supporters. “A key element of the ruling Law and Justice party’s support base is in rural areas, and particularly farmers,” he added.
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“Farmers vote overwhelmingly for Law and Justice. It’s political suicide for them if they don’t respond to this [grain crisis].”
Russia has intensified attacks at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports this week with cruise missiles destroying farm storage buildings in the Odesa region on Friday for a fourth consecutive day, Ukrainian officials have said. The latest barrage injured two people, damaged equipment and destroyed tons of pea and barley in storage, said regional governor Oleh Kiper.
Both Russia and Ukraine have announced that they will treat ships travelling to each other’s Black Sea ports as potential military targets.
The Institute for the Study of War noted that the recent strikes against port and grain infrastructure “are likely a part of a Kremlin effort to leverage Russia’s exit from the Black Sea grain initiative and exact extensive concessions from the West”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin[11] said on Wednesday that he was ready to return to the grain deal immediately if all conditions for Russia’s participation in the initiative are fulfilled, including lifting sanctions on sales of Russian grain and fertiliser.
“The Kremlin may be attempting to disrupt Ukraine’s future prospects for maritime exports in an effort to sour Ukrainian relations with its Western neighbours,” the Washington-based think tank said in its latest assessment of the war.
Professor Szczerbiak said that while Polish-Ukrainian relations has been “patchy and problematic” in the past, giving the example of the massacre in Volhynia in 1943[12] in which an estimated 100,000 Poles were killed by Ukrainian nationalists, Poland has set aside delicate issues for the sake of unity against Russian aggression.
“Poland still considers itself as a major ally of Ukraine in the conflict, it’s a key hub for providing military and humanitarian aid,” Professor Szczerbiak added.
“This specific issue is a serious disagreement between the Polish and Ukrainian governments. But it doesn’t change the bigger picture.”
References
- ^ collapse of the Black Sea grain deal (inews.co.uk)
- ^ Poland (inews.co.uk)
- ^ Black Sea grain initiative (inews.co.uk)
- ^ alternative routes to export grain (inews.co.uk)
- ^ Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (inews.co.uk)
- ^ July 20, 2023 (twitter.com)
- ^ “not a very sensible remark” (www.polskieradio.pl)
- ^ solidarity lanes” (transport.ec.europa.eu)
- ^ were pelted with eggs (www.euractiv.pl)
- ^ the EU was seeking to transport more Ukrainian grain via road and rail (www.reuters.com)
- ^ Russian President Vladimir Putin (inews.co.uk)
- ^ massacre in Volhynia in 1943 (apnews.com)