Iraq’s development priorities | Haitham El-Zobaidi | AW

There is a lot of talk about rail networks in our region. There are suggestions of two rail networks linking the Caucasus and Russia to the Arabian Gulf and the Indian Ocean via Iran.

The Iranians and the Iraqis are talking about a railway which would link Iranian and the Iraqi networks via the Shalamcheh-Basra railway line.

The Iranians do not stop talking about a line linking Iran to the Mediterranean Sea through Iraq and Syria. Then there is the “Development Road” project recently announced by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani, which would establish a railway link between the Gulf and Turkey that would cut the time normally spent by ships travelling that distance.

On paper, these projects seem important if not essential. There are many political considerations associated with the implementation of such schemes. A mere glimpse at a Russian map will show you how this vast country lacks adequate access to the sea. The Ukraine war has highlighted the importance of the Black Sea and the Bosphorus Strait. Most regions of Russia are captives of their geographic landlock, being a long distance away from oceans and seas.

Iran has as much reason as the Russians to serve as a major transportation node. There is justification for Tehran to exploit its political encroachment in the Middle East to further its strategic expansion towards the Mediterranean.

Persian rulers have always aspired to reach the waters of the Mediterranean. Today, with Hezbollah’s hegemonic presence in Lebanon, along with the arrival of Iranians in Syria under the cover of the Syrian civil war and the fall of northern Iraq for a period under the control of ISIS and then the restoration of the Popular Mobilisation Forces’ control over the provinces of Diyala, Salahuddin and Nineveh, the Iranian dream of a Tehran-Mediterranean line is more than ever a distinct possibility.

What is new about the “Development Road” announced by Sudani? The project seems quite logical. Iraq geographically links two major economic regions: the Gulf and Europe. European goods or Gulf products, especially those related to energy, can move very quickly between the two regions. Railways are the basis of transportation in the landlocked country.

For a state that has lacked development for decades because of war, an economic blockade and civil strife, this project could constitute a turning point, hence well deserving of attention. At the very least, there is now an Iraqi government thinking about development, something that Iraq has long lacked, despite amassing oil revenues exceeding all levels prior to the 2003 US invasion.

To what extent can the “Development Road” offer a path to development in Iraq? Some Iraqi experts say that the idea is workable and that it can make a difference in a place like Iraq.

I am no expert, butone can argue for the immediate feasibility of the project in a country that suffers from the disintegration of its infrastructure, a chronic deficit in electric power output and a failure to develop its oil production infrastructure.

The more pointed question is to what extent does the project constitute a priority now?

Infrastructure in Iraq is a story of its own. Services are in bad shape, not because of war, neglect and lack of investment in infrastructure only, but also because the country has witnessed a demographic explosion that increased the population from 13 million in 1977 to nearly 44 million today. Take any aspect of infrastructure, be it roads, sewer system or the drinking water network, and you need to multiply the required investment today at least threefold.

In the final analysis, when dealing with industrial and agricultural-based development, one needs to ask: does Iraq have enough electrical power to achieve any progress in these basic areas?

Any Iraqi who struggles every day with the interruption of national electricity supplies at home or work and the subsequent need to reconnect his home or workshop to local generators, will tell you that nothing will be accomplished before solving the electricity problem.

If money is available for investment in Iraq today, it should be first spent on oil production and expansion of the gas industry infrastructure.

Iraq’s oil production is not commensurate with the country’s potential as one of the world’s largest oil reserves. Some say that Iraq is the largest unexplored oil reservoir in the world, and that seismic surveys have only explored a small part of that reservoir.