Brendan Hughes: Ambitious all-island trains review easily derailed
When former Prime Minister Boris Johnson's big idea of a bridge between Northern Ireland and Scotland was being debated, many dismissed it as a "fantasy" and a "waste of public money".
At that point, long before any UK Government assessment had been carried out, the price tag had been speculated at between £15billion and £20billion.
These figures are considerably less than the £30billion estimate for a vast railway network expansion across the island of Ireland which has been proposed in the All-Island Strategic Rail Review.
It gives some context to the mammoth sums of money being considered in the report, which was launched this week[2] after being jointly commissioned by Stormont and the Irish Government.
And yet the reactions to the two major infrastructure proposals were rather different.
Mr Johnson's bridge pitch was welcomed by unionists but panned by nationalists. A government report eventually binned the proposal as "impossible to justify", estimating the bill in reality would be £335billion for a bridge or £209billion for a tunnel.
The all-island rail review on the other hand has been lauded by nationalists as a "once in a generation opportunity", while the DUP branded it "heavy on ideas but light on real delivery".
With 30 recommendations stretching from Letterkenny to Cork, the proposals are certainly ambitious - even with a 25-year timeframe for implementation.
The Northern Ireland recommendations include extending the railway into Co Tyrone – running from Portadown to Dungannon, Omagh, Strabane and Derry - and reinstating the Antrim to Lisburn line with a station at Belfast International Airport.
If the review had focused solely on speeding up rail travel between Belfast and Dublin, perhaps even extending the network to the cities' airports, it may have seemed doable.
But for many this far-reaching report, which stretches to 111 pages, will be seen as simply a wish list that could easily be derailed.
Stormont's track record on delivering infrastructure and other major capital projects shows these proposals - like the Belfast-Dublin Enterprise service - are going nowhere fast.
The stalled York Street Interchange, Narrow Water Bridge, Casement Park and the A5 upgrade have all been talked about for years without a single sod being cut.
A new Glider bus service between north and south Belfast - a doddle of a construction project in comparison to this rail review - won't be delivered until 2027 at the earliest.
Even much smaller projects have been waylaid. It was reported this week[3] a plot for a single house in North Belfast acquired by Stormont at a cost to the public of almost £270,000 has lain derelict for 16 years.
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Cost is also a significant factor, making many of these all-island rail plans appear entirely undeliverable.
Under the proposals Northern Ireland would take a 25% share of the bill, which would be £7.7billion, or £308million per annum over a 25-year period.
The cost is the equivalent of delivering two north-south Glider services every year for 25 years, or 45 Casement Parks.
Some funding could become available from the European Union and other sources, but the long-term investment would still have to contend with political instability at Stormont.
The Irish Government publishing the report in the Executive's absence has led some to question how much positioning for future elections in the Republic has played a factor in its release.
Already it is clear not everyone in the Dublin administration is on board with the proposals.
Green Party leader and Transport Minister Eamon Ryan hailed it as a "new age of rail". But Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said he believed the report made the case for further investment in road networks as there would only be small increases in rail usage under the plan.
Every so often someone goes viral on Twitter by sharing a map of the island of Ireland showing the decline in the rail network compared to previous generations.
For cynics, this rail review could effectively amount to the government equivalent of tweeting that map, and very little else.
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References
- ^ Brendan Hughes: DUP MP Ian Paisley's lawyer remarks only weaken Troubles bill opposition (www.belfastlive.co.uk)
- ^ launched this week (www.belfastlive.co.uk)
- ^ It was reported this week (www.belfastlive.co.uk)
- ^ Political Reporter Brendan Hughes (e.belfastlive.co.uk)
- ^ sign up to our free newsletter here (www.belfastlive.co.uk)
- ^ Click this link (chat.whatsapp.com)
- ^ Privacy Notice (www.reachplc.com)
- ^ here (www.belfastlive.co.uk)
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