Why the ‘Varsity Line’ between Oxford and Cambridge risks …
The rivalry between Oxford and Cambridge stretches back centuries[1], with each university town famously dismissing their opposite as “the other place”.
Yet a new £5bn rail link aims to unite the ancient foes at last, in the hope of turning the region into a rival to Silicon Valley or Boston, Massachusetts.
East West Rail will revive the old “Varsity line” previously junked in the 1960s, linking Oxford to Cambridge via Bicester, Bletchley and Bedford and cutting journey times by an hour.
Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, threw his backing behind the plans in November’s Autumn Statement. The route is expected to be fully operational by the early 2030s.
But, like its bigger cousin, High Speed 2 (HS2), East West Rail is battling opposition,[2] with the prospect of legal challenges threatening to frustrate and delay the scheme.
“We were never asked whether we actually wanted this or not,” says Dr William Harrold, a retired telecoms engineer who is leading the campaign against the Cambridge section of the route.
“The sort of questions in the consultations are just, ‘Would it be perfect if we did it this way, or even more perfect if we did it that way?’ Where is the democracy in that?”
1806 East-West Rail project[3]
The first part of East West Rail, to upgrade tracks between Oxford and Bicester, was completed in 2016. Work is currently underway to restore a section of railway between Bicester and Bletchley, which is due to be ready in 2025.
That will be followed by a refurbishment of the line between Bletchley and Bedford and then the construction of brand new tracks from Bedford to Cambridge.
The business case rests on lofty ambitions to turn the region – dubbed the Oxford-Cambridge growth corridor, or the Oxford-Cambridge Arc – into a life sciences powerhouse, spanning Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire, Northamptonshire and Cambridgeshire.
“Fundamentally, you’ve got two of the top universities in the world but connectivity at the moment is not good by road and, in fact, there is no direct link by rail,” says Sir John Armitt, who chairs the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) and previously worked on the 2012 London Olympics.
“People will say it’s already doing very well and, yes, maybe it is – but it could do a heck of a lot better.”
Work has already begun on the East West Rail line, which is expected to be operational by the 2030s
Credit: East West Rail
A 2017 report by the NIC said the biggest constraint on the region’s potential was housing, for which demand has massively outstripped supply.
The most visible proof of this is prices. In Cambridge, the ratio of median house prices to earnings is 13:1, while in Oxford it is 12:1. Both are significantly higher than the overall ratio across England, which stands at 8:3.
The NIC, in its report, called for one million homes to be built across the arc between the two cities by 2050. It said both East West Rail and a new “Oxford-Cambridge Expressway” road were needed to improve transport links and unlock the land needed for these homes, unleashing a boom that would create 1.1 million new jobs and boosting the UK’s economic output by £163bn per year.
But opposition proved to be fierce, with campaigners angered by what they saw as a Whitehall-imposed plan to carpet swathes of the countryside with motorways and housing estates.
Only East West Rail survived the uproar – with the NIC’s housing proposals and the Oxford Cambridge Expressway junked by ministers.
The rail link’s endurance has surprised some, with the Chancellor’s recent backing clearing up any uncertainty over whether the scheme would be finished.
A Treasury source says Hunt was ultimately convinced by the economic case and arguments made by life science businesses such as AstraZeneca[4], which have continually lobbied in support. The Cambridge Biomedical Campus, where the drug giant is based, is due to get its own £200m station on the East West Rail route.
“These two cities are fast-growing,” the source adds. “It’s crucial for life sciences – countless firms have mentioned it.”
Beth West, chief executive of East West Rail, argues the line will allow more workers to commute to Oxford or Cambridge from places dotted along the route.
“Both these cities are bursting,” she adds. “So it’s really difficult to see how new jobs are going to be created unless you can find places for people to live.”
AstraZeneca is based in the Cambridge Biomedical Campus, which is due to get its own £200m station on the line
Credit: AstraZeneca
Dr Nik Johnson, the mayor of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, also hopes the line will bring investment to areas near the line.
“I wouldn’t just talk about the link between the university towns,” he says. “The idea is that you embrace the whole regional partnership, and what that brings in terms of investment, education opportunities and employment opportunities.
“We can be bigger – stronger – together. And as mayor, I’m hoping it can help us deal with inequalities in my area.”
Most experts concur that Oxford and Cambridge need access to more workers[5]. But not all agree that building East West Rail – and more homes along its route – is the best way to deliver that.
Paul Swinney, director of policy and research at the Centre for Cities, claims there is not much evidence to support the idea that railways of this kind unlock massive growth on their own.
This is because, largely, the number of commuters that can make their way into cities is constrained by basic things such as how often trains will arrive and how many people each one can carry.
“We’re talking about one line as opposed to many lines going into the centre of a place,” Swinney explains. “There’s no question it will mean more people travel in. The real issue is: how many people will that actually be, and how does that balance against the overall cost of the intervention?
“You have to remember that we are linking two relatively small places, and train lines don’t come cheap.”
A better way to solve sky-high house prices in Oxford would be to simply build more houses in and around the city, while providing more reliable transport links to the people who live there, Swinney argues.
That criticism is echoed by Harrold, co-founder of the Cambridge Approaches group, who is sceptical of the economic benefits of linking Oxford with Cambridge by rail, as well as the route the project bosses have chosen – which passes close to his village.
Cambridge is struggling with low housing stock and a lack of access to workers
Car users, he says, would be unlikely to be convinced of the benefits. “If you allow time to get to the stations, actually, the railway doesn’t really compete very well on journey times,” Harrold adds.
“The problem this is trying to solve has become growing jobs in Cambridge. But nobody has really asked: ‘Is this the right solution anymore?’”
Like groups that have challenged HS2, Cambridge Approaches has warned East West Rail it is ready to seek a judicial review in an attempt to force the company to rethink its decision to enter Cambridge from the south.
As politicians grow concerned that Britain is becoming a “can’t do” country, with infrastructure in energy, transport and utilities facing opposition wherever it is proposed, the scheme is a microcosm of the challenges big building projects face.
“We are working really hard to try to engage with communities, and demonstrate for the people who are living in the countryside, the benefits of the railway to them,” says West at East West Rail.
But for now, the company still has a lot of convincing to do. Harrold at Cambridge Approaches says he recognises some people will see him as a Nimby, but adds: “I would maintain that everybody is a Nimby[6].
“It’s the natural reaction when your community is being seriously affected by new infrastructure – and you are struggling to understand why.”
References
- ^ rivalry between Oxford and Cambridge stretches back centuries (www.telegraph.co.uk)
- ^ battling opposition, (www.telegraph.co.uk)
- ^ 1806 East-West Rail project (cf-particle-html.eip.telegraph.co.uk)
- ^ life science businesses such as AstraZeneca (www.telegraph.co.uk)
- ^ concur that Oxford and Cambridge need access to more workers (www.telegraph.co.uk)
- ^ everybody is a Nimby (www.telegraph.co.uk)