US futures and European stocks retreat with recession fears on the radar; Powell and More Market Matters Today

New York index futures and European bourses are lower on Thursday morning as global volatility continues and market sentiment has shifted to a more negative outlook amid fears of rising inflation and a slowdown. of economic growth. The day before, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told the US Senate that the central bank is “strongly committed” to reducing inflation. He also noted that a recession is a “possibility,” a fear that continues to weigh heavily on Wall Street.

Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly higher as investors continued to monitor recession concerns on Thursday. On the commodity side, Brent crude is on a downward trend, now in the £109 a barrel region, reflecting global fears of weaker demand. In Brazil, BC President Roberto Campos Neto takes part in a press conference at 11 am on monetary policy, while investors monitor the news on Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4) and discussions on fuel price policy and on the value of the diesel voucher.

After the negative reaction of truck drivers to the Bolsonaro government’s proposal to create a “truck allowance” of R£ 400 per month, until the end of this year, the summit of the Palacio do Planalto articulates with Congress the possibility of increasing this amount, according to information from Estadao and Reuters. The pressure is for the transfer to be expanded to up to BRL 1,000 per month, but the amount has not yet been defined and is under study. The news generates fiscal fear, which even impacted the Brazilian market after the closing.

On the corporate front, CVC and Eneva will disclose their share price in their respective subsequent share offerings.

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1. World Scholarships

United States

US futures indexes operate between slight losses and gains this Thursday (22). The day before, the main indices began to have a slight decline at the end of regular trading.

Investors monitor the likelihood of a recession, bolstered by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s own view, which he acknowledged during his Senate speech. Today, investors await new data on jobless claims. Powell will also speak in the House of Representatives.

See the performance of futures markets:

  • Dow Jones Future (USA), -0.02%
  • S&P 500 Futures (US), +0.21%
  • Nasdaq Future (US), +0.59%


Asian markets closed with no clear direction as investors continued to monitor recession concerns on Thursday. Among economic data, Singapore announced that core inflation stood at 3.6% in May from a year ago. The figure is slightly higher than the 3.5% that analysts polled by Reuters had expected and the April impression of 3.3%.

China shares rose to a nearly four-month closing high on Thursday, while the Hong Kong index gained more than 1% as Chinese tech companies and automakers jumped on support from Beijing. Central banks in the United States and Europe “have been raising interest rates and shrinking balance sheets, but China has eased monetary policies to stabilize growth,” Linus Yip, chief strategist at First Shanghai Group, told Reuters. Tech stocks in both markets rose sharply after Chinese President Xi Jinping signaled support for the country’s top payment companies and fintechs, in the latest indication that Beijing is easing its regulatory clampdown on the sector.

  • Shanghai SE (China), +1.62%
  • Nikkei (Japan), +0.08%
  • Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), +1.26%
  • Kospi (South Korea), -1.22%


European markets operate lower, while markets continue to reflect recession fears.

On the European data front, flash estimates of French and German PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) readings for June came in weaker than expected, adding to recession fears. The German composite PMI, which captures manufacturing and services activity, dropped to 52.0 from 54.8 in May, below analysts’ forecast of 54.0 in a Reuters poll. France’s composite reading came in at 52.8, down from 57.0 in May.

Attention again to Germany, which triggered the “alarm stage” of its gas emergency plan on Thursday in response to a slump in Russian supply but did not allow utilities to pass on rising energy costs to customers in most countries. Europe’s economy. The move is the latest escalation in a standoff between Europe and Moscow since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which exposed the bloc’s dependence on Russian gas supplies and sparked a frantic search for alternative energy sources.

  • FTSE 100 (UK), -0.81%
  • DAX (Germany), -1.27%
  • CAC 40 (France), -0.79%
  • FTSE MIB (Italy), -1.00%


Oil prices fell on Thursday, adding to losses from the previous day, as investors worried that aggressive interest rate hikes in the US could trigger a recession and hurt demand for fuel.

  • WTI oil, -2.46% at £103.57 a barrel
  • Brent crude, -2.23% at £109.25 a barrel
  • Iron ore traded on the Dalian Exchange rose 4.19% to 749.50 yuan, equivalent to US£111.75


  • Bitcoin, +1.58% to £20,580.62 (from 24 hours ago)




8:00 am: Weekly IPC-S Index

8:00 am: Election poll – Exam/Idea

10:00 am: Paulo Guedes, Minister of Economy, participates in the Extraordinary Meeting of the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE)

10:30 am: Auction of National Treasury bonds

10:30 am: Federal revenue data for May

11 am: Claudemir Malaquias, head of the Tax and Customs Studies Center of the Federal Revenue, comments on the result of the May collection

11 am: Roberto Campos Neto, president of the BC, participates in a virtual press conference on monetary policy

2:30 pm: Paulo Guedes, Minister of Economy, participates in the 1st Extraordinary Meeting of the Interministerial Committee on Climate Change and Green Growth (CIM)

3pm: National Monetary Council (CMN) decides on inflation target for 2025

4:00 pm: Paulo Guedes, Minister of Economy, with the Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Afonso Bevilaqua


9:30 am: Claims for weekly unemployment benefits, Refinitiv consensus points to 227,000 claims

9:30 am: Quarterly current account balance

10:45 am: PMI

12:00 pm: Oil inventories – weekly EIA

3. Voucher for truck drivers

The government is studying raising the voucher for truck drivers to R£1,000, compared to a previous indication of a voucher of R£400 (which received criticism from the segment). One of the main leaders of the 2018 truck drivers’ strike, Wallace Landin, known as “Chorao”, called the R£400 aid “alms”.

Reuters points out that, under pressure to endorse the measures articulated by Congress and the Planalto Palace to create truck driver assistance and expand the gas voucher to low-income families this election year, the Ministry of Economy is evaluating the cost of the initiatives and works to limit the impact on public coffers. The leader of the Parliamentary Front of the category in Congress, Nereu Crispim (PSD-RS), said that “not even R£ 5 thousand will solve it”. The deputy defended that Bolsonaro suspend Petrobras’ import parity pricing (PPI) policy.

In a video released this Wednesday afternoon, 22, Chorao had asked the government to choose a new president for Petrobras, willing to change the state-owned fuel pricing policy.

Petrobras CPI

Bolsonaro’s desire to see the Petrobras CPI installed, to investigate fuel price adjustments, does not even have the support of the allied base, points out Estadao. The PP, a party commanded by the Minister of the Civil House, Ciro Nogueira, instructed its parliamentarians not to sign the request that asks for the installation of the CPI. A total of 133 signatures have been collected so far.

171 are needed for the text to be forwarded to the presidency of the Chamber.

Pacheco demands caution in debate on changing the State-owned Companies Law

The president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco, defended again today that a possible amendment to the State-owned Companies Law “is not the way” to control fuel prices. In his assessment, “caution” is needed with this type of measure. The statement goes against what the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira, has been defending.

According to Pacheco, a meeting of leaders is scheduled tomorrow, at 9 am, at which the text and voting schedule of PEC 16 will be discussed, which guarantees financial compensation for states that adopt a zero rate for the ICMS on diesel and gas. for cooking and 12% for ethanol.

4. Covid

Last Thursday (22), Brazil recorded 176 deaths and 70,285 cases of covid-19 in 24 hours, according to information from the consortium of press vehicles, at 8 pm. The moving average of Covid deaths in 7 days in Brazil stood at 124, remaining practically stable compared to the level of 14 days before.

The seven-day moving average of new cases was 40,677, which represents an increase of 138% compared to the level of 14 days earlier. The number of people fully immunized against Covid in Brazil reached 167,210,978, equivalent to 77.83% of the population. The number of people who took at least the first dose of vaccines reached 178,968,095 people, which represents 83.31% of the population.

The booster dose was given to 99,595,176 people, or 45.98% of the population.

5. Corporate Radar

Hypera (HYPE3) approved the distribution of interest on equity of R£194.7 million, equivalent to R£0.3077 per share. Payment will be made by the end of fiscal year 2023, on a date yet to be announced by the company.

GPA (PCAR3) announced that it has concluded the share buyback program of Exito, a Colombian company controlled by the company. Considering the exchange rates applied to convert the amounts paid into Colombian pesos for the Exito shares sold by GPA under the buyback program, the group received a total amount of R£398.1 million for the sale of 3.40% of your participation. After the repurchase took place, GPA now holds 96.52% of Exito’s capital stock, 91.52% of which directly by the group and 5.00% by its subsidiary GPA2 Empreendimentos e Participacoes.

Localiza (RENT3) and Unidas (LCAM3)

Cade approved the Brookfield investment fund to be the buyer of the segregated assets of the RAC and Seminovos operations of the Localiza and Unidas merger, including about 49,000 cars.

The purchaser’s approval was one of the conditions for the consummation of the business combination between Localiza and Unidas. In view of the purchaser’s approval by the CADE Court, the companies inform that the closing of the combination on July 1, 2022. (With Estadao, Reuters and Agencia Brasil)

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